Annihilate Jews, Win a State!

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Government Consolidation in Syria: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani is attempting to consolidate HTS’s political and military control in a post-Assad Syrian government. Jolani and HTS may find it difficult to subordinate other Syrian groups to the control of the HTS-controlled interim government. Some of these groups have previously fought against Jolani’s organization and may be reticent to see Jolani expand his influence.
  
• Sectarianism in Syria: More extremist and sectarian groups within the HTS coalition may not adhere to HTS’s vow to respect Syria’s religious and sectarian minorities, which would likely trigger sectarian violence in Syria. Reported sectarian incidents and revenge killings—though the incidents remain isolated and relatively independent of each other at this time—create opportunities for extreme and sectarian groups to incite further religious- or sectarian-based violence to destabilize a future Syrian government.
  
• Israel in Syria: An anonymous senior Israeli official told an Israeli journalist that the height of the IDF campaign on the Syrian Front is over.
  
• Eastern Syria: The HTS-led operations room seized full control of Deir ez Zor City from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on December 10. Arab forces within the SDF are also defecting to the HTS-led transitional government in Damascus as HTS-led forces seize more ground on the right bank of the Euphrates. HTS has not yet assisted Arab defectors from the SDF with additional forces. Opposition forces across Syria—except the SNA-SDF fighting—have so far attempted to resolve their issues without resorting to fighting.
  
• Iranian Response to Syria: The Iranian supreme leader gave a speech in which he claimed that Syria was “occupied” by opposition forces. The supreme leader compared Syria today to Iraq in the 2003-2011 period and said that Syrian youth would free Syrian just like Iranian-backed Iraqi militias “freed” Iraq from the United States.
  
• Iran-Turkey: Khamenei criticized the "obvious role" that “a neighboring government”—almost certainly a reference to Turkey—played in the developments in Syria.
  
• Iranian Intelligence Operations in Israel: Four unspecified Israeli security sources told Reuters on December 11 that Iran has intensified its effort to recruit Israelis susceptible to recruitment over the past two years.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-11-2024

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Syria: HTS is trying to retain control over the forces that it leads to maintain its moderate image and prevent sectarian conflict. HTS likely recognizes the risk of revenge killings and sectarian violence, which could destabilize Syria further.
  
• Syria: The US-backed SDF is facing intense external and internal pressure. The SDF did, however, reach a four-day ceasefire agreement with the Turkish-backed SNA around Manbij in northern Syria.
  
• Syria: The HTS-led transitional government is trying to portray itself as the legitimate Syrian state by publicizing its engagement with foreign actors. No foreign countries have yet recognized the transitional government as the legitimate state, however.
  
• Iran: The E3 sent a letter to the UN Security Council, threatening to impose “snapback” sanctions on Iran. The E3 is responding to the dramatic expansion of the Iranian nuclear program and Iranian non-cooperation with the IAEA.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-12-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/GGnZ9d2GG2g" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/GGnZ9d2GG2g</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGnZ9d2GG2g

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Iranian Reactions to Syria: The Iranian regime is still coming to terms with the fall of the Assad regime and reflecting on its former Syria policy.
  
• Blinken in the Middle East: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the situation in Syria with senior Turkish and Iraqi officials on December 12 and 13. Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on December 12 and 13, respectively, to try to persuade Turkey “not to press [its] advantage” against the Kurdish-controlled, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.
  
• Syrian Democratic Forces: The SDF is facing two perceived existential threats in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime, which almost certainly caused the SDF to deprioritize the counter-ISIS mission. SDF commander General Mazloum Abdi announced that the SDF plans to negotiate its role in a future Syrian government, likely to prevent further unrest within Arab populations and militias under the SDF.
  
• Religious and Sectarian Tension in Syria: Reports of Sunni Muslims harassing and threatening minority religious and sectarian groups in Syria continue to gain traction in the information space, which could create opportunities for extreme groups to incite further religious- or sectarian-based violence. CTP-ISW will continue to report these indicators of any interfaith or sectarian violence given the serious nature of these crimes and the risk that revenge, sectarian, and interfaith killings and harassment could spark larger-scale cycles of violence.
  
• Israel in Syria: The IDF continued to operate in the Israel-Syria disengagement zone and on the Israel-Syria border on December 13. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on December 13 that he ordered the IDF to prepare to stay on Syrian Mt. Hermon during the coming months.
  
• Russia in Syria: Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia's longer-term military presence in the country. The status of Russia's helicopter base at Qamishli in northeastern Syria remains unclear, however.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-13-2024

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Russia in Syria: Russia’s withdrawal from bases in northern Syria and its loss of influence in Syria will likely expose the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to continued Turkish attacks in northern Syria. Russia had previously opposed several prior Turkish attempts to capture SDF-controlled areas and prevented Turkish operations. The loss of Russia’s physical presence and influence in northern Syria means that the primary barrier against a Turkish or Turkish-backed operation to seize even more SDF-controlled areas—or a Turkish attempt to destroy the SDF outright—no longer exists.
  
• Syrian Democratic Forces: Turkey will likely continue to back the SNA’s ground operation against the SDF to destroy the SDF. The SDF’s fight against Turkey and its proxies will render it unable to support US policy objectives in Syria. The SDF cannot conduct offensive operations against ISIS while contending with the threat from Turkey and its allies in Syria. It is unclear if the SDF would be able to secure key facilities like al Hol camp if it faces a severe threat from Turkish-backed forces to Kurdish civilian areas.
  
• Expanding HTS Control in Syria: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) continues to consolidate security control over disparate armed groups in Syria.
  
• US Carrier Deployment: US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group arrived in the Middle East on December 14. CENTCOM stated that the strike group moved into CENTCOM’s area of responsibility to ensure regional stability and security, but did not specify the exact location of the strike group.
  
• Israel in Syria: Israeli military officials approved plans for operations further into Syria but have not implemented them. Israeli forces continued to operate in villages in Quneitra and Daraa provinces on December 15.
  
• Iraqi Reactions to Syria: Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri stated on December 12 that “what happened in Syria is a stain of shame on the foreheads of the Turks.” The Iraqi Army and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are continuing to bolster security along the Iraq-Syria Border.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-15-2024

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• HTS and the Syrian Security Sector: The HTS-controlled interim government is continuing to reconcile with former members of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).
  
• Syrian Transition: HTS has not suggested it will implement key elements of UNSCR 2254 and is attempting to change the resolution’s guidance to account for Syria’s “new reality.” HTS leader Ahmad Shara (Jolani) noted on December 16 that Syria is not ready for elections, and the interim government has so far failed to outline any process for generating a constitution. HTS-selected officials within the transitional government would presumably be relied upon to establish a method to write a constitution, including the selection of various powerbrokers across the country and in different minority groups to attend negotiations.
  
• Northern Syria: A four-day ceasefire between the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Manbij area expired without an extension on December 16. The Turkish-backed SNA is reportedly seizing private and government property in Manbij. Local media reported that at least some of these seizures target Kurds, “under the pretext of [the Kurds] belonging to the SDF.
  
• Syrian Democratic Forces: Arab elements continue to defect from the Syrian Democratic Forces. The head of internal security for the al Busayrah and Dhiban region in SDF-controlled Deir ez Zor Province announced he and “hundreds” of his fighters would join the HTS-led Military Operations Department.
  
• Israel in Syria: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to operate in southern Syrian towns near the Jordanian border on December 16.
  
• Israel’s October 25 Strike on Iran: Israel’s large-scale aerial attack on Iranian missile production sites on October 25 significantly damaged Iran's missile production capability, including its ability to export Iranian-made missiles to partners like Russia and the Houthis.
  
• ISIS: US Central Command (CENTCOM) is continuing to conduct airstrikes in previously regime-held areas to disrupt ISIS operations.
  
• Iranian Information Space: Some Iranian media outlets appear to be engaged in an information campaign to stoke sectarian tensions and promote a hardline approach toward the new HTS-led interim government.
  
• Russia-HTS Negotiations: Russia continues to negotiate with the interim Syrian government to maintain its military presence at the Hmeimim Air Base and Port of Tartus in Syria, but Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov's recent appeals to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) suggest that talks may have hit a snag.
  
• Russia in Syria: Russia continues to withdraw elements of its force grouping in Syria to the western coast amid limited reports that Moscow plans to fully withdraw within one month. UK-based, Qatari-owned news outlet Al Araby al Jadeed reported on December 16 that sources "close to the [HTS-led] military operations department" in Syria stated that Russia will withdraw all its military forces from Syria within one month.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-16-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/K6ef-7pLvC0" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/K6ef-7pLvC0</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6ef-7pLvC0

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• HTS, Turkey, and the Syrian Democratic Forces: Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas. The SDF is unlikely to accept Turkish maximalist demands, which would result in the SDF’s complete destruction, without suffering a military defeat.
  
• HTS Consolidation: It is unclear if HTS leader Ahmad al Shara’s (aka Abu Mohammad al Jolani) vision of appointing a committee of legal experts to write the Syrian constitution will include multi-sectarian and religious representation. Shara and the interim prime minister have, however, appointed loyalists as governors in several provinces and ministers in the transitional government.
  
• Protests in Syria: Syrian residents of Tartus demonstrated in front of the police headquarters in Tartus City on December 18 to protest the slow interim government response to theft and violent crime in the area. At least hundreds of Syrians also demonstrated in support of a secular, representative government in Damascus on December 19.
  
• Southern Operations Room in Syria: Syrian media reported that the Southern Operations Room is attempting to unite disparate southern armed factions under the HTS-led interim government, likely in order to increase the relative strength of the Southern Operations Room vis-a-vis the HTS-led Fateh Mubin.
  
• Israeli Strikes in Yemen: The IDF conducted two waves of airstrikes targeting port and energy infrastructure in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on December 18.
  
• Houthi Strikes in Israel: The Houthis have conducted two attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on December 18.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-19-2024

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Syria: US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf described HTS leader Ahmed al Shara as “pragmatic” but did not specify what concrete steps Shara or the HTS-led interim government will take to combat terrorism or ensure minority rights.
  
• Syria: HTS is trying to consolidate control over the Syrian coastal region amid reports of instability and violence there. HTS launched an effort purportedly to crack down on crime but appears also meant to counter politically motivated civil conflict.
  
• Syria: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara is continuing to try to portray himself as pragmatic and inclusive by engaging minorities. Shara met with religious authorities who are responsible for managing a holy Shia shrine in Damascus and committed to protect it.
  
• Yemen: The Houthis fired a Palestine-2 ballistic missile targeting the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area, injuring 16 Israelis. The IDF fired interceptors but missed the projectile. The IDF separately intercepted a likely Houthi drone that entered southern Israeli airspace.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-21-2024

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Syria: The HTS-led Syrian interim government reportedly stated that it will discuss mechanisms for disarming and dissolving the US-backed SDF with SDF leadership. The government also reportedly wants to avoid negotiations that would grant regional autonomy to the SDF.
  
• Syria: Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn completely from most of their positions in Syria, including their base at Qamishli in northern Syria. Russia’s only remaining positions are at Hmeimim and Tartus along the Syrian coast.
  
• Iraq: The Iraqi federal government is reportedly reconsidering its request for US forces to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2025 because it is concerned that the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria could threaten Iraqi security.
  
• Iran: Iran is facing a severe energy crisis marked by electricity and natural gas shortages. This crisis presents a serious threat to regime stability given that it will likely stoke anti-regime sentiments and could spark protests.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-23-2024

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Syrian Democratic Forces: The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) defended against Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) attempts to recapture SDF-held ground on the west bank of the Euphrates River near the Tishreen Dam and Qere Qozak Bridge.
  
• HTS Governance: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara may face resistance to the current moderate approach to governance from Salafi-Jihadi factions within the HTS-led coalition. Members of the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) in Syria, a member of the HTS-led military coalition with links to al Qaeda, set fire to a Christmas tree in Suqaylabiyah, Hama Governorate, on December 23. The friction between the Salafi-jihadi ideologues and Shara over his relatively moderate governance could force Shara to compel Salafi-jihadists to adhere to his vision or take a more Salafi approach to preserve Shara’s coalition.
  
• ISIS Activity: ISIS may be attempting to resupply its forces with weapons captured from regime, Russian, and Iranian stocks in the central Syrian desert. CENTCOM targeted a “truckload of ISIS weapons” in Deir ez Zor. ISIS fighters−who have long fought under threat of airstrikes−would presumably avoid transporting large amounts of weapons from existing ISIS stocks, given the risk that US airstrikes would destroy much-needed weapons stockpiles. The decision to transport these weapons in a “truckload“ suggests that ISIS had captured a new stock of weapons and attempted to transport them to a safe location when CENTCOM struck the vehicle.
  
• Building Syria’s Army: Syrian armed groups agreed to “dissolve” themselves and merge under the HTS-led Defense Ministry, but this does not mean that Syrian opposition forces will answer to the Defense Ministry in practice.  HTS will likely absorb the various armed groups and functionally reflag them as new Syrian army units as a way to ameliorate concerns about losing power among various leaders. Dissolving and integrating therefore does not necessarily mean that these armed groups will cease to exist entirely. This type of absorption and reflagging often results in armed group leaders failing to observe the actual chain of command. 
  
• West Bank: The IDF is executing its operation at the same time Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces are operating against Palestinian militias to regain security control of Jenin from the militias. Israeli forces launched an unusual "brigade-wide" counterterrorism operation in Tulkarm, in the northern West Bank, on December 23. It also conducted a separate operation in Nablus.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and the public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-24-2024

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Conflict in Syria: Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. There is already an ongoing ethnic conflict between the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). These trends include killings, arrests, and kidnappings that appear to occur outside of a transparent judicial process for trying war criminals, provocative protests and sectarian imagery on social media, and Iranian provocation.
  
• HTS Government Formation: The HTS-led interim government appointed former al Qaeda in Iraq and Jabhat al Nusra member Anas Hasan Khattab as head of the General Intelligence Service on December 26.
  
• SNA-SDF Fighting: The Turkish-backed SNA engaged the US-backed SDF in contested territory southeast of Manbij and likely pushed SDF forces east towards Tishreen Dam. Syrian media reported that the SDF advanced on a new axis into SNA-controlled territory east of Aleppo, likely to relieve pressure on the Tishreen Dam area by forcing the SNA to redeploy its forces to respond to a new threat.
  
• Turkey: The Turkish Ministry of Defense announced in a statement on December 26 that Turkey supports a “unified Syrian army,” likely referring to a Syrian army that excludes the SDF.
  
• Iraq in Syria: The pro-Iran Iraqi National Intelligence Service director implied to HTS leader Ahmad al Shara on December 26 that Iraq would consider intervening or allowing Iraqi militias to intervene in Syria if unspecified instability threatened Iraq.
  
• Israel in Syria: The IDF continued to operate in villages in Quneitra and Daraa Provinces.
  
• Yemen: The IDF conducted airstrikes targeting port and energy infrastructure in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on December 26.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-26-2024