Slaughter imminent?

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/fmEI2KyizsE" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/fmEI2KyizsE</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmEI2KyizsE

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian Joint Forces and Khortytsia Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov stressed that Russia is pursuing an effort to force Ukraine to commit its available manpower to ongoing defensive operations in order to prevent the accumulation of Ukrainian resources for future counteroffensive operations.
  
• Russian Airborne (VDV) and "Dnepr" Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky addressed VDV forces in an article and recorded video on the 94th anniversary of the VDV's formation on August 2, attempting to highlight the VDV's performance in Ukraine as an elite professional force despite the fact that VDV elements are fighting essentially as understrength motorized rifle units in Ukraine.
  
• Russian authorities arrested the former deputy rear commander of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) Colonel Dmitry Peshkov on August 2.
  
• The Russian Federation Council passed an updated version of an amendment that will allow commanders to punish subordinates for "gross disciplinary offenses," including the use of personal electronic devices, in frontline areas following significant backlash from Russian milbloggers.
  
• The Russian Federation Council also passed a series of bills strengthening the Russian government's control over the Russian information space and further restricting the rights of migrants in Russia.
  
• The pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc announced its candidate for the October 2024 Moldovan presidential election on August 2.
  
• Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
  
• A Russian government official weighed in on ongoing milblogger criticism of Russia's drone production industry.
  
• A delegation of Kremlin officials visited occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts on August 2 to highlight Russian efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into the Russian Federation.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-2-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/7eqtyh9kahw" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/7eqtyh9kahw</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eqtyh9kahw

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defense missile launchers, an S-500 air defense system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet's (BSF) Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine in occupied Crimea on August 2.
  
• Ukrainian forces also conducted a series of successful drone strikes against likely military targets in Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts on August 3.
  
• The Kremlin reportedly planned to transfer unspecified missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen but did not transfer the materiel following diplomatic pressure. Russia's reported plan highlights its growing military partnership with Iran and suggests that Russia likely aims to leverage Iranian proxies to indirectly confront the West and shape Western decision making.
  
• Putin's willingness to consider supporting the Houthis as they attack Israel and international shipping is part of deepening Russian-Iranian military cooperation and Russia's increasing reliance on Iran for high-precision weapons and components.
  
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, and Chasiv Yar.
  
• Russian authorities continue efforts to financially incentivize Russian military service in Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-3-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/NnVc2QwENPg" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/NnVc2QwENPg</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnVc2QwENPg

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/F7GAWiLvcig" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/F7GAWiLvcig</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7GAWiLvcig

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes against fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on August 4.
  
• Ukraine confirmed that it has received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets.
  
• Russian milbloggers responded to the arrival of F-16s by trying to downplay their potential battlefield effects—directly undermining Russian information operations intended to frame the delivery of F-16s and other Western weapons systems as an uncrossable "red line."
  
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances east of Pokrovsk, west of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  
• The Russian defense industry reportedly continues to produce missiles using Western-sourced components.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-4-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/4HHZbq_4pcQ" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/4HHZbq_4pcQ</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HHZbq_4pcQ

Key Takeaways:

• Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD's Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5.
  
• A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on August 5 that the Head of the Russian MoD's Main Armored Directorate, Lieutenant General Alexander Shestakov, will leave his position in the near future.
  
• Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met with various high-ranking Iranian officials, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akhbar Ahmadian in Tehran on August 5.
  
• Russia is tightening pre-departure standards for Tajik migrants hoping to work in Russia, likely as part of ongoing Russian efforts to address security threats from the Islamic State's Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March 2024.
  
• Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), citing satellite imagery, reported that Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed an Su-34 bomber aircraft and an ammunition warehouse at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast on August 3.
  
• Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk and Pokrovsk near Donetsk City and Robotyne.
  
• The Kremlin continues efforts to position Russian veterans who have fought in Ukraine in domestic political roles.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-5-2024

[D2D]

Key Takeaways:

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of cross border raids into Kursk Oblast on August 6.
  
• Russian milbloggers largely dismissed the supposed Ukrainian raids into Kursk Oblast, and Ukrainian officials have largely yet to comment on the raids.
  
• Russian Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu heavily overexaggerated Russian advances in Ukraine since mid-June 2024.
  
• Russian officials continue coordination and military cooperation with Iran ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel out of concern for Russian interests in the region. NOTE: a version of this text appears in ISW-CTP's August 6 Iran Update.
  
• Armenia continues to abstain from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
  
• Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk.
  
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly issued a formal reply denying a request from the wives of the mobilized Russian personnel to meet with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-6-2024

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/QFv_6t8tLOI" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/QFv_6t8tLOI</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFv_6t8tLOI

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/Z5whM6NQIPs" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/Z5whM6NQIPs</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5whM6NQIPs

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/cPE3X3eukCM" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/cPE3X3eukCM</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPE3X3eukCM


Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7.
  
• The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk Oblast has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent.
  
• Select Russian milbloggers heavily criticized the Russian military command for not detecting preparations for or preventing Ukrainian offensive operations into Kursk Oblast.
  
• Ukrainian forces reportedly used a first-person view (FPV) drone to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast, indicating that Ukrainian forces continue to successfully adapt their drone capabilities.
  
• Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov assessed on August 7 that Russian offensive potential will culminate within one and a half to two months, generally consistent with ISW's assessment of Russia's current offensive capabilities.
  
• Head of the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), Danielle Bell, stated that Russia has tortured 95 percent of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war (POWs) in Russian detention.
  
• The Moldovan Central Electoral Commission (CEC) announced on August 7 that it would not register the pro-Kremlin Victory electoral bloc in the October 2024 Moldovan presidential election and referendum.
  
• A Russian court sentenced Andrey Kurshin, administrator of the "Moscow Calling" Russian ultranationalist milblogger Telegram channel, to six and a half years in prison on August 7 for publishing "fake" information about the Russian military.
  
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions south of Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces advanced northeast of Siversk, southwest of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  
• Russian Army Combat Reserve (BARS) units continue recruitment efforts.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-7-2024