Slaughter imminent?

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/SkKp_fkClM0" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/SkKp_fkClM0</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkKp_fkClM0

[D2D]

Key Takeaways

• Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.
  
• Ukrainian officials acknowledged limited Ukrainian battlefield successes during recent localized counterattacks in and around Bakhmut.
  
• Russian milbloggers uniformly attacked a proposal for “military censorship,” further indicating that the community is highly motivated to defend its privileged position within the Russian information space.
  
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that it intercepted a Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile for the first time on May 15.
  
• The Kremlin has reportedly banned high-ranking officials from resigning during the war in Ukraine, likely in an attempt to maintain stability within domestic security organs, government bodies, and the Russian military command.
  
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on May 14 and 15 confirming the provision of more Western military aid.
  
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast and established a bridgehead on the west bank of the Oskil River, but ISW has observed no visual confirmation of these claims.
  
• Russian forces continued to launch ground assaults in and around Bakhmut and conducted limited offensive operations near Donetsk City.
  
• Ukrainian intelligence reported that approximately 152,000 Russian military personnel in southern Ukraine continue defensive efforts ahead of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.
  
• Russian authorities continue efforts to take advantage of migrant labor and incentivize foreigners into contract military service.
  
• Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to set conditions to forcibly relocate Ukrainians from occupied territories to Russia.
  
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko received a briefing from Belarusian generals on May 15 following recent speculation about his possible illness or death.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15-2023

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/Eo3ZyZgCVAk" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/Eo3ZyZgCVAk</a>


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo3ZyZgCVAk

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces have likely committed to reinforcing their tactical offensive effort in the Bakhmut area despite Ukraine’s apparent focus on limited and localized counterattacks.
  
• The reported Russian reinforcements to the Bakhmut area suggest that Russian forces are continuing to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives.
  
• Russia conducted another large-scale drone and missile strike on the night of May 15 to 16.
  
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted to downplay his reported cooperation with Ukrainian intelligence on May 15.
  
• The Wagner Group’s continued glorification and normalization of violence is evident in a widely circulated video purportedly showing a killed American volunteer in Bakhmut.
  
• Russia and Iran continue efforts to strengthen bilateral military-economic cooperation.
  
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) proposed a draft regulatory act that would allow FSB officers to conduct searches without a court order, likely to support the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to strengthen domestic repression.
  
• Russian forces reportedly shut down another Ukrainian evangelical Christian church in Mariupol likely as part of a systematic religious persecution campaign in occupied Ukraine.
  
• Russian forces are reportedly deploying additional manpower and equipment from Belarus to reinforce their positions in Luhansk Oblast.
  
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremmina line.
  
• Russian forces have made marginal gains within Bakhmut as of May 16 and continued limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  
• Russian forces are continuing to panic about maintaining their positions in the east (left) bank Kherson Oblast ahead of anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensives.
  
• The Kremlin continues to pass legislation that provides benefits to participants of the war and their families in order to incentivize military service.
  
• Russian authorities continue efforts to consolidate the economic subordination of occupied areas of Ukraine into the Russian economy.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-16-2023

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/vnHurMudAJk" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/vnHurMudAJk</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnHurMudAJk

Great for fire and maneuver, resupply, and house-to-house urban combat!

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/Xk5PY-jBStw" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/Xk5PY-jBStw</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk5PY-jBStw

Key Takeaways

• Russian and Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut on May 17.
  
• Ukrainian officials reported that terrain features constrain Ukrainian offensive operations across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
  
• US officials reported that a Patriot air defense system is operational after Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian missile strikes on Kyiv destroyed the system on May 16.
  
• The Kremlin reportedly accused three hypersonic missile scientists of treason.
  
• Select Russian strongmen (siloviki) are likely attempting to signal to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin that he must cease his political ambitions in Russia.
  
• The Russian siloviki may be intimidating Russian officials affiliated with Prigozhin to discourage their cooperation with Wagner but appear to be unsuccessful in their attempts to scare Prigozhin into obedience.
  
• Russian authorities continue to crack down against domestic anti-war dissent in an effort to strengthen domestic repressions and prepare Russian society for a long-term war effort.
  
• Russian authorities are likely forcefully integrating Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) dioceses in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast as part of a wider religious persecution campaign in occupied Ukraine.
  
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  
• Russian forces continued to make incremental gains in Bakhmut and conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  
• Russian forces continued to target west (right) bank Kherson Oblast and islands at the Dnipro River delta out of fear of planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.
  
• The Kremlin continues crypto-mobilization efforts by recruiting regional volunteer battalions and criminals.
  
• The Russian State Duma adopted amendments to the martial law on May 16 that authorize the forced and controlled movement of citizens from territories under the martial law to the territories without marital law.
  
• Russian ultranationalists are speculating about the fate of Belarus’ independence in case of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s severe illness or death.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-17-2023

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/TIhYNFn_-cY" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/TIhYNFn_-cY</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIhYNFn_-cY

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/6IoY0-Lv_c4" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/6IoY0-Lv_c4</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IoY0-Lv_c4

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/JEe_dJZtF1E" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/JEe_dJZtF1E</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEe_dJZtF1E

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/89Vlt4Qe7HU" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/89Vlt4Qe7HU</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89Vlt4Qe7HU

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin declared victory in Bakhmut City on May 20 and announced his intent to withdraw from the city on May 25.
  
• Prigozhin’s claimed victory over the remaining areas in Bakhmut is purely symbolic even if true.
  
• Ukrainian forces continue pressuring Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks.
  
• Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.
  
• Russian conventional forces likely will still need to transfer additional forces to the Bakhmut direction even if Wagner mercenaries remain in Bakhmut.
  
• Russian forces targeted Kyiv Oblast with Iranian-made Shahed drones on the night of May 19 to 20.
  
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated on May 20 that the United States may agree to transfer modern combat aircraft to Ukraine, including the F-16, on the condition that Ukraine does not use them to strike Russian territory.
  
• Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian sources are falsely alleging that high-ranking Ukrainian military commanders have recently died, likely to demoralize Ukrainian forces and to portray Russian forces as constraining Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities.
  
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kreminna area.
  
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  
• The Washington Post reported on May 19 that a Ukrainian commander stated that Ukrainian Special Operations forces conduct raids in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast but that Ukrainian forces do not hold stable positions there.
  
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is incorporating mobilized and conscripted personnel into its own “Veterany” private military company (PMC), leading to discrimination and conflict.
  
• A Lithuanian official publicly accused Russia of attempting to hold international children hostage in occupied Crimea as “human shields” against a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-20-2023

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/1fxJoNEx2l8" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/1fxJoNEx2l8</a>


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fxJoNEx2l8

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group mercenaries likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut City while Ukrainian forces are continuing to prioritize counterattacks on Bakhmut’s outskirts.
  
• ISW previously forecasted that Wagner offensive operations would likely culminate after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut at its current depleted state.
  
• Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Wagner Group and the Russian military on May 21 for capturing Bakhmut.
  
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin predictably claimed the victory over Bakhmut City entirely for himself and his forces.
  
• Russian reactions to the claimed capture of Bakhmut illustrate an increasingly growing divide between the Kremlin’s domestic presentation of the war and the ultranationalist milblogger community’s coverage of Russian operations in Ukraine.
  
• US President Joe Biden stated on May 21 that the US will train Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation aircraft, including F-16s, to augment Ukraine’s defense capabilities in the long term.
  
• Former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s “Club of Angry Patriots” social movement opened a St. Petersburg chapter with an inaugural event on May 21.
  
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna.
  
• Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Donetsk City-Avdiivka frontline but have not made any verifiable territorial gains.
  
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a deep strike against a Russian headquarters at an airfield in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, with a Storm Shadow missile.
  
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that seven regiments and four battalions from Chechnya are operating in Ukraine as of May 20.
  
  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-21-2023
  
• Russian occupation authorities are reportedly intensifying filtration measures in occupied Ukraine to find Ukrainian partisans.

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/_cnnRyTjed4" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/_cnnRyTjed4</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cnnRyTjed4

Bent Beijing Biden authorized this!

An invasion of Russia proper that threatens a Russian nuclear stockpile!

[D2D]

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/67a7OqWvb4Q" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/v/67a7OqWvb4Q</a>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67a7OqWvb4Q