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Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iran is capitalizing on the presence of senior Axis of Resistance officials in Tehran for Ebrahim Raisi’s funeral to coordinate and cohere their approaches to the Israel–Hamas war.
West Bank: The IDF found militia tunnels in Jenin as part of an Israeli effort to destroy militia capabilities and tunnels in the West Bank before they can be used to attack Israel.
Gaza Strip: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that Israel would deploy additional military assets to Rafah.
Yemen: The Houthi supreme leader announced that the Houthis attacked international shipping in the Mediterranean Sea in recent days. There is no evidence to support this claim.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The IDF is moving “more deliberately” in Rafah, according to Israeli officers who recently left Rafah who spoke to the New York Times on May 25.
Humanitarian Aid in the Gaza Strip: A US Army landing craft and part of the US-constructed pier in the Gaza Strip was swept away by waves to Ashdod, Israel.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least two locations in the West Bank on May 25.
Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed one drone attack targeting an unspecified “vital target” in Eilat, southern Israel.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-25-2024

Quote from: D2D on 05 25, 24, 11:23:42:PM

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The IDF is moving “more deliberately” in Rafah, according to Israeli officers who recently left Rafah who spoke to the New York Times on May 25.
Humanitarian Aid in the Gaza Strip: A US Army landing craft and part of the US-constructed pier in the Gaza Strip was swept away by waves to Ashdod, Israel.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least two locations in the West Bank on May 25.
Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed one drone attack targeting an unspecified “vital target” in Eilat, southern Israel.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-25-2024

Hopefully Hezbollah is summarily defeated like Hamas.

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Elections: The Iranian supreme leader reportedly appointed his policy adviser, Rear Adm. Ali Shamkhani, in March 2024 to leader nuclear negotiations with the United States. The publication of this information now may be meant to boost Shamkhani’s political position ahead of Iran’s presidential election.
Iranian Presidential Candidates: Prominent Iranian hardliner Saeed Jalili announced his candidacy for the Iranian presidential elections in June 2024. Iranian journalists reported that several other prominent political figures are planning to run.
Iranian-backed Militias in Iraq: Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are reportedly considering resuming attacks on US forces days after a meeting between Iranian-backed militia leaders from throughout the region and the IRGC in Tehran.
Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF is fighting three Hamas battalions that are defending Jabalia camp. Two of the battalions were previously “dismantled,” which underscores the requirement for a sustainable political and military end state in the Gaza Strip.
Israeli Strike in Rafah: An IDF airstrike killed two Hamas officials in Rafah on May 26, but the strike also caused a fire that killed 35 Palestinian civilians.
Rafah Border Crossing: Israeli and Egyptian forces exchanged small arms fire at the Rafah border crossing.
Lebanon: A Likud minister said that Israel will conduct a military operation targeting Hezbollah to return displaced residents from northern Israeli if political efforts to stop Hezbollah attacks into northern Israel fail. This statement echoes previous Israeli statements about the possibility of operations into Lebanon.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-27-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran’s Nuclear Program: Iran has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels amid recent statements from Iranian officials about Iran’s ability to procure a nuclear weapon.
Iranian Parliament: Iranian parliamentarians re-elected hardline politician Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as parliament speaker, with Ghalibaf receiving 198 of 287 votes.
Rafah: The IDF expanded operations into Western Rafah. IDF units moved deeper into Rafah along the Egypt-Gaza Strip border overnight on May 27 and 28. The IDF has so far identified ten smuggling tunnels that cross into Egypt from the Gaza Strip.
Iraq: Nationalist Iraqi Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr demanded that the Iraqi government expel US Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski and close the US Embassy in Baghdad in retaliation for US support for Israel.
Yemen: The Houthis damaged a Marshall Islands-flagged merchant vessel in the Red Sea.
Ceasefire Negotiations: Israel submitted a new ceasefire proposal that offered “flexibility” on the number of living hostages to be released in the deal’s first phase. Hamas has not acknowledged the proposal as of the data cutoff.
Russo-Iranian Cooperation: Iran's continued support for Russia's defense industrial base (DIB) and provision of lethal aid to Russia is bolstering Russia's technological output and military capabilities on the battlefield in Ukraine.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-28-2024

Key Takeaways:

Southern Gaza Strip: The IDF announced that it established “operational control” of the Philadelphi Corridor on the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip.
Iraq: Iraqi Interior Minister Abdul Amir al Shammari traveled to Tehran to discuss internal security cooperation with senior Iranian military officials.
Yemen: Iran is broadcasting that it has helped the Houthis develop anti-ship ballistic missile capabilities.
Northern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces have expanded their clearing operations in Jabalia in recent days.
Humanitarian Aid: The United States suspended operations at its temporary pier in the Gaza Strip due to damage sustained at sea.
West Bank: Palestinian fighters fired small arms at two towns in Israel from the West Bank.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least eight attacks into northern Israel.
Iran: Policy adviser to the Iranian supreme leader, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, appears to be re-entering public Iranian discourse ahead of the Iranian presidential election in June 2024.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: Israel reportedly withdrew some IDF units from Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip. Hamas will almost certainly try to exploit these withdrawals to continue reconstituting its forces.
Iran: The registration period for the Iranian presidential election began. One only prominent individual, hardliner Saeed Jalili, has registered thus far. The registration period lasts until June 3.
Syria: Syrian President Bashar al Assad traveled to Tehran to meet with senior Iranian officials. The visit may be part of recent efforts by Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” to coordinate their actions vis-a-vis the Israel Hamas war.
West Bank: The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed that its fighters entered Bat Hefer in Israel to kill an IDF officer there. The claim comes amid an uptick in activity around the Israel-West Bank border, specifically around Bat Hefer.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-30-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: Israeli forces launched a raid targeting Palestinian militias in Sabra and Zaytoun neighborhoods of Gaza City.
Political Negotiations: Hamas stated that it will engage the latest Israeli proposal constructively, so long as the proposal meets Hamas’ maximalist demands.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in eight locations across the West Bank.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted 11 attacks into northern Israel.
Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a drone attack targeting Israel.
Yemen: The Houthis claimed six drone and missile attacks targeting commercial and US naval vessels.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-2-2024

Israel: 4 More Hostages Dead in Gaza, Including 3 Older Men Who Were in Video!

Four more hostages kidnapped on Oct. 7 were declared dead by the Israeli military — including three older adults seen in a Hamas video begging to be released. Monday's announcement heightens pressure on the Israeli government to agree to a U.S. cease-fire proposal that could secure the return of the hostages still held in Gaza and end the eight-month war.

About 80 hostages in Gaza are believed to be alive, alongside the remains of 43 others. In the days since the Biden administration announced the cease-fire proposal Friday, Israel has seen some of its largest protests calling on the government to bring them home. Israeli leadership has appeared to brush aside the President Joe Biden's proposal, vowing to keep conducting military operations against Hamas until the militant group is destroyed.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-06-03-2024/2024/06/03/id/1167297/

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Presidential Elections: Iranian hardline officials are continuing to try to promote an electoral consensus among hardliners ahead of the June 28 presidential election as part of an effort to avoid infighting between hardliners that could provide an opening for a moderate victory.
Ceasefire Negotiations: Hamas reportedly said that it will reject the Israeli ceasefire proposal, arguing that the proposal does not ensure a permanent end to hostilities. Hamas will continue to reject proposals until it secures a “permanent ceasefire.” Hamas does not acknowledge the legitimacy of any permanent ceasefire and has repeatedly said that any ceasefire is temporary until Hamas destroys Israel.
Gaza Strip: An Israeli official said that Hamas is avoiding direct battles with Israeli forces, preferring to ambush the IDF and using improvised explosive devices against Israeli forces.
Yemen: The Houthis claimed on June 6 that they conducted a combined operation targeting Israel with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias as part of their effort to impose an unofficial blockade. This blockade is unlikely to be successful, given that the Houthis have so far been unable to successfully attack Israeli shipping in the Mediterranean at a sufficient rate to impact imports or exports from Mediterranean ports.
Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias reportedly set a 40-day deadline for the Iraqi prime minister to expel US forces from Iraq.
West Bank: Palestinian fighters are likely maintaining at least one vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) manufacturing cell northeast of Tubas. Palestinian militias in Tubas may be collaborating to assemble and deploy these VBIEDs, given the significant amount of resources and expertise required to manufacture a VBIED.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-6-2024

IDF Foils Hamas Attempt to Breach Israeli Border From Rafah, Uncovers Terror Tunnel in Child’s Room (https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/06/idf-foils-hamas-attempt-to-breach-israeli-border-from-rafah-uncovers-terror-tunnel-in-childs-room/)

“IDF troops … identified several suspects who approached the border from the Gaza Strip and moved toward Israel in an attempt to cross the security area in the area of Rafah.”

Israeli military foiled an attempt by Hamas terrorists to breach the Israeli border fence from their stronghold of Rafah, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) revealed Thursday.

The IDF soldiers spotted the terrorists intruders as they approached the border fence. “IDF troops operating in the area of the security fence identified several suspects who approached the border from the Gaza Strip and moved toward Israel in an attempt to cross the security area in the area of Rafah,” the Israeli military said in a press release Thursday. “The troops engaged the terrorists who opened fire at them. The troops then returned fire at the terrorists.”

Israeli fighter jets took out two of the terrorists, thwarting Hamas’s attempt to enter Israel. “An IAF aircraft that monitored the terrorist cell struck the terrorists and eliminated two of them. Another terrorist was eliminated by means of tank fire shortly afterward,” the IDF statement added. “We emphasize that the terrorists did not cross the fence built along the Gaza Strip.”

https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1798603504636027016

https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/06/idf-foils-hamas-attempt-to-breach-israeli-border-from-rafah-uncovers-terror-tunnel-in-childs-room/

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The IDF rescued four hostages in an operation in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip. Palestinian fighters killed one Israeli officer during the rescue. Separately, Israeli War Cabinet minister Benny Gantz canceled a speech in which he was expected to announce his resignation from the Israeli coalition government.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least six locations across the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on June 7.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least 11 attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 7.
Yemen: US CENTCOM destroyed a Houthi patrol boat in the Red Sea on June 7.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-8-2024

Key Takeaways:

Israel: Israeli War Cabinet minister Benny Gantz resigned from the coalition government on June 9. Gantz’s resignation will not on its own cause the collapse of the Netanyahu government.
Rafah: The IDF expects to conclude clearing operations in Rafah in the “next few weeks,” according to an Israeli Army Radio correspondent.
Iran: Iran’s Guardian Council approved six candidates to participate in the June 28 Iranian presidential elections. The council only approved one reformist politician, and it disqualified prominent moderate politician Ali Larijani for the second consecutive presidential election.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least 10 attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 8.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least three locations across the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on June 8.
Yemen: A Houthi attack in the Arabian Sea on June 9 caused two ships to catch fire.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-9-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Presidential Elections: The Iranian Guardian Council approved six candidates including one reformist and five hardliners for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The participation of five hardliners risks splitting the hardline vote, though some hardliners will probably withdraw from the election to prevent splitting the vote. The Guardian Council did not approve some top politicians, including former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani.
Iran: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s advisers have spoken to Western diplomats in recent weeks, possibly to set conditions for the resumption of nuclear negotiations if he becomes president.
Iraq: An Iranian-backed Iraqi militia warned on June 8 that it will resume attacks targeting US forces if US forces do not leave Iraq. Unspecified Iranian-backed militias in Iraq reportedly plan to renew attacks if the Iraqi prime minister does not set a deadline for a full US military withdrawal by May 15.
Lebanon: An Israeli Army Radio correspondent highlighted some of the challenges that Israeli forces face intercepting drones targeting northern Israel in an X (Twitter) post on June 10. These challenges are particularly salient given the increased risk of a major war between Israel and Hezbollah in northern Israel. Hezbollah would likely use the lessons it is learning in its attacks on Israel to penetrate Israeli air defenses and strike critical infrastructure and civilian areas, including Haifa port.
Ceasefire Negotiations: The United States is reportedly considering bilateral hostage talks with Hamas to free Americans from the Gaza Strip.
Gaza Strip: Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar is likely hiding in a “vast” tunnel system beneath Khan Younis, according to unspecified US officials speaking to the New York Times.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-10-2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed Sunday that all three of the male hostages rescued on Saturday were held by Abdallah Aljamal, a “journalist” who contributed to the Palestine Chronicle and Al Jazeera.

As Breitbart News reported Saturday, four hostages — Noa Argamani, 25; Almog Meir Jan, 21; Andrey Kozlov, 27; and Shlomi Ziv, 40 — were rescued in a joint operation by the IDF, ISA, and the Israeli police. One Israeli police officer, Arnon Zamora, was killed in the operation.

Aljamal and his wife and father were reportedly killed in the Israeli raid after soldiers entered his home.

As Breitbart News reported, he was revealed to have had another job, as the spokesperson for the Hamas-run Palestinian Department of Labor in Gaza.

But speculation also mounted that he had held one or more hostages, given that some Israeli sources said soldiers had only entered the two apartments where hostages were held.

The IDF announced:

Following the completion of IDF and ISA [Israel Security Agency] examinations of reports on the subject, it can be confirmed that Abdallah Aljamal was an operative in the Hamas terrorist organization, who held the hostages Almog Meir Jan, Andrey Kozlov, and Shlomi Ziv captive in his family home in Nuseirat.

The hostages were held captive by Abdallah Aljamal and members of his family in their home. This is further evidence of the deliberate use of civilian homes and buildings by the Hamas terrorist organization to hold Israeli hostages captive in the Gaza Strip.

Israeli security forces will continue to make every effort to bring the hostages home.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/06/09/idf-confirmed-3-male-israeli-hostages-held-gaza-journalist-hamas/

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip Ceasefire: Hamas sent a formal response to the Israeli ceasefire proposal to international mediators on June 11, but the full response has not yet been released. A senior Hamas member told Hezbollah-affiliated media that Hamas left comments on the proposal including descriptions of the ceasefire and demands for Israeli withdrawals from the Rafah crossing and Philadelphi Corridor.
Hamas Ceasefire Calculations: Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar remains confident in Hamas’ position in the Gaza Strip and believes that Israel has “more to lose” than Hamas. Sinwar analogized himself to Imam Hussein in a statement to unspecified allies. Hussein was a major figure in Islamic history who fought and died against a much larger army at Karbala in 680 CE.
Iranian Presidential Elections: Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian is trying to balance his relatively moderate agenda with his need to maintain the approval of the Iranian supreme leader. Most—if not all—actors in the Iranian political spectrum are ultimately dedicated to preserving the Islamic Republic and serving its supreme leader.
Iranian Presidential Disqualifications: UK-based outlet Amwaj Media reported that multiple regime officials worked to disqualify prominent moderate Iranian politician Ali Larijani from the 2021 presidential elections.
Iraq and Syria: An Iranian-backed Iraqi militia claimed that unidentified fighters fired rockets at US forces in northeastern Syria on June 11. This group previously claimed that unidentified fighters targeted US forces in northeastern Syria in March 2024, but CENTCOM did not confirm that attack. There is no evidence that either the June 11 or March 2024 attacks actually occurred.
Yemen: CNN reported on June 11 that US intelligence learned that Houthis are in talks to provide weapons to Somalia-based Sunni militant group al Shabaab, citing three anonymous US officials.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: Hamas is requiring Israel to meet its maximalist demands sooner than stipulated in the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal. Hamas has not seemingly shortened the timeline on which it would release Israeli hostages, however.
Yemen: The Houthis claimed for the second time that they conducted a combined attack with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias targeting Israel. They have conducted these attacks as part of a larger effort to impose an unofficial blockade on Israel.
Iran: Iran is continuing to expand its nuclear program. Iran is installing new centrifuges to increase its uranium enrichment capacity. Iran has also negotiated with Niger to receive 300 tons of uranium yellowcake.
Iran: Iranian hardliners are debating and negotiating amongst themselves to unite their faction behind a single candidate in the Iranian presidential election. The faction is concerned that the five hardline candidates will split the vote and advantage the sole reformist candidate.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The IDF 162nd Division continued to operate in Rafah on June 14. The Nahal Brigade identified openings between buildings in Rafah that Hamas fighters use to traverse quickly through dense neighborhoods.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Israeli officials are continuing to discuss an offensive into Lebanon amid a heightened rate of Hezbollah attacks into northern Israel. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least 22 attacks into northern Israel.
Iran: Iranian hardline candidate Saeed Jalili launched his 2024 presidential campaign by defining his political platform as a continuation of former President Ebrahim Raisi’s policies.
Iran: Reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian is adopting an increasingly reformist political agenda likely to bolster endorsements from high-profile reformist individuals.
Yemen: US CENTCOM destroyed several Houthi systems, including an air defense sensor, drone, and two patrol boats.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-14-2024

Yep, and it isn't just Palestinians who feel that way!

http://thereligionofpeace.com/pages/articles/opinion-polls.aspx

http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/09/10/muslim-publics-share-concerns-about-extremist-groups/

http://www.debbieschlussel.com/41425/pew-report-13-of-us-muslims-support-al-qaeda-60-say-911-attacks-not-done-by-muslims-arabs-13-say-being-muslim-conflicts-w-modern-society-25-came-to-us-under-bush/

An average of 22 percent of Muslims believe in suicide bombing!

Given the world has 2038 million Muslims, that means 448.4 million Muslims are pro-terrorist!

http://muslimpopulation.com/World/

With another 17 percent or 346.5 million Muslims being moderately pro-terrorism, combined that is 794.9 million terrorists
exceeding the entire population of America twice over!

Israel, Hezbollah on 'brink' of all-out war, officials warn!

Hezbollah is the 'crown jewel' of Iran's terror empire, Israel says!

Israeli officials warned that the country is on the "brink" of a full-scale war with Hezbollah if the terrorist group continues to increase its aggression in northern Israel.

The Israeli Defense Forces (https://www.foxnews.com/category/world/world-regions/israel) (IDF) made the warning on Sunday, just a day before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to meet with Amos Hochstein, a top aide to President Biden. Biden's administration is pushing Israel to avoid a war in Lebanon, but IDF officials continue to highlight the outsized threat posed by Hezbollah compared to Hamas.

"Hezbollah's increasing aggression is bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation," an IDF spokesman warned Sunday.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/israel-hezbollah-brink-all-war-officials-warn

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: Hamas’ Rafah Brigade will likely survive with sufficient assets to reconstitute itself, given the time and space to reconstitute. An Israeli war correspondent said that an unspecified number of Hamas fighters left the Rafah area when Israeli forces first entered Rafah.
Israeli Operations in Rafah: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on June 17 that it has dismantled about half of Hamas’ forces in Rafah.
Iranian Presidential Election: Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be struggling to consolidate support among Iranian youth, a key voter demographic. The Sharif University students’ statements—while not emblematic of all individuals in this demographic—are demonstrative of the increased disillusionment of Iranian youth in recent years.
Yemen: The Houthis conducted four attacks that caused physical damage to commercial vessels between June 9 and June 13, possibly indicating an increase in the effectiveness of Houthi attacks.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-17-2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on Tuesday that operational plans had been approved for an offensive in Lebanon where Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists have been launching escalating attacks on Israel that began after the Hamas assault from the Gaza Strip on October 7.

According to the IDF, the Northern Command's Commanding Officer MG Ori Gordin and Head of the Operations Directorate MG Oded Basiuk approved the operational plans after holding a "joint situational assessment" in the Northern Command on Tuesday.

"As part of the situational assessment, operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated, and decisions were taken on the continuation of increasing the readiness of troops in the field," the IDF's statement added.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2024/06/18/israel-approves-plans-for-offensive-against-hezbollah-in-lebanon-n2640634

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iranian presidential candidates discussed the economy in the first debate for the upcoming election.
Iran has begun running computer models that could support the research and development of nuclear weapons.
Gaza Strip: A senior Israeli negotiator told Agence France-Presse that Hamas still holds “dozens” of living hostages in the Gaza Strip.
An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on June 18 details from an IDF Southern Command discussion on Hamas’ military capabilities in the Gaza Strip.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least two locations in the West Bank.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted three attacks into northern Israel.
Iraq: The US State Department designated Harakat Ansar Allah al Awfiya (HAAA) as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist.
Yemen: US CENTCOM said that it has destroyed four Houthi radars and one Houthi unmanned surface vessel in Yemen.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-18-2024

Immediately after the burnings, rapes, mutilations and murders of Jews on Oct. 7, I was not alone in noting the one moral difference between Hamas and the Nazis: The Nazis tried to hide their crimes against the Jews from the German people (and the world) while Hamas proudly publicized their crimes against the Jews to the Palestinian people (and didn't mind that the world would inevitably see them bragging about killing Jews). In addition to videoing their atrocities, Hamas paraded captured Jews -- dead and alive, clothed and naked -- in front of cheering Palestinian crowds in Gaza.

https://hotair.com/dennis-prager/2024/06/18/the-palestinians-are-worse-than-the-germans-n3790490

Key Takeaways:

Iraq: The Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee issued a statement suggesting a consensus among Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to resume attacks targeting US forces. This is its first coordinated statement since attacks on US forces paused in January 2024 that suggests such a consensus.
Iran and Hamas: Iran and Hamas are continuing to coordinate politically to maintain alignment across the Axis of Resistance during the Israel-Hamas War.
Northern Israel Border: Recent US and Israeli reports have emphasized the Hezbollah rocket, drone, and missile threat that Israel could face in the event of a major war between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah is targeting Israeli air defense assets and surveillance equipment, probably to create temporary and local advantages vis-a-vis Israel and prepare for possible escalation.
Rafah: The tactically sophisticated nature of two Hamas attacks targeting IDF units in Rafah on June 20 underscores that two Hamas battalions in Rafah remain cohesive fighting units that have not been defeated or seriously degraded. This is consistent with the IDF’s report that it has “somewhat degraded” two of the four Hamas battalions in Rafah.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-20-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iranian presidential candidates discussed government management and service provision during the second debate for the upcoming election. The candidates spoke in generalities without describing substantive policies to address domestic issues for much of the debate.
Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Palestinian fighters continued attacking Israeli forces throughout the area.
West Bank: Israeli police located and disarmed an IED planted under a car in Lod—an Israeli city around five miles from the Israel-West Bank border.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted six attacks into northern Israel, including with one-way attack drones.
Yemen: The United States intercepted four Houthi unmanned surface vessels and two unmanned aerial vehicles in the Red Sea.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-21-2024

Key Takeaways:

Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF reportedly attempted to target the fourth highest-ranking Hamas military commander in Gaza City.
Humanitarian Aid: An anonymous UN official said that unspecified armed groups regularly block aid convoys and hold aid drivers at gunpoint along the Israeli-declared humanitarian corridor east of Rafah.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least seven locations in the West Bank.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least four attacks into northern Israel.
Yemen: The Houthis claimed two attacks targeting vessels in the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-22-2024

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told soldiers on Sunday night in Rafah, in the Gaza Strip, that they have nearly succeeded in dismantling Hamas’s remaining battalions in the area.
In a statement, Halevi said (translation via IDF):

We have very high levels of achievements from the combat in Rafah, and I express great appreciation for that. This is reflected in the amount of terrorists that have been eliminated, as well as the infrastructure destroyed, the underground tunnel routes, its mapping, its destruction, and the progress in the complex underground combat. The fact that the 162nd Division now controls the Philadelphi Corridor from the sea to the border between Israel, Gaza, and Egypt, is very significant in cutting off Hamas’ supply for future smuggling. We are now dealing with the underground assets. We are clearly approaching the point where we can say we have dismantled the Rafah Brigade, that it is defeated not in the sense that there are no more terrorists, but in the sense that it can no longer function as a fighting unit. It has suffered many casualties, and you will ensure until the completion of the mission here, to eliminate as many terrorists and destroy as much terrorist infrastructure as possible going forward. With great appreciation, what is happening here is very impressive professionally, keep it up.

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2024/06/24/idf-chief-of-staff-we-have-nearly-dismantled-hamas-in-rafah/

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: Hamas is rebuilding its weapons production capacity in the Gaza Strip as part of a larger effort to reconstitute its military forces. Hamas has also begun trying to recruit and train 18-year-olds to this end.
Iran: Iranian presidential candidates discussed socio-cultural issues during the third debate of the upcoming election. None of the presumed frontrunners suggested that they would support fundamental changes to long-standing regime policies.
West Bank: PIJ detonated an IED around Bat Hefer, which is near the Israel–West Bank border. The attack comes amid an uptick in Palestinian militant activity in the area in recent weeks.
Lebanon: Workers at Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport are reportedly concerned about an increase in Iranian weapons deliveries to Lebanese Hezbollah.
Iraq: Hamas is reportedly planning to relocate its political leadership from Qatar to Iraq. Iran and the Iraqi federal government would reportedly provide security to Hamas leaders in Iraq.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with ultraconservative hardline presidential candidate Saeed Jalili’s views, possibly indicating that Khamenei endorses Jalili in the upcoming election. Khamenei’s views also signal the supreme leader’s opposition to reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian.
Gaza Strip: Israel assesses that it will complete the intense phase of ground operation in the Gaza Strip within a few days. Hamas will very likely exploit the Israeli raid system to reconstitute its combat units and reassert its governing authority across the Gaza Strip.
Hamas is disrupting Israeli efforts to create nascent governing authorities that exclude Hamas’ political wing. Hamas reportedly killed two clan leaders in the central and southern Gaza Strip as part of this effort
Jordan: Iranian-backed groups are continuing to recruit members and smuggle and manufacture weapons, likely to destabilize Jordan and facilitate Iranian efforts in the West Bank.
West Bank: Hamas and the al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades infiltrated Israeli territory near Tulkarm and fired at IDF soldiers.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: US presidential envoy Amos Hochstein warned Hezbollah that the group cannot rely on the United States to prevent Israel from conducting an attack into Lebanon.
Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a drone attack targeting an unspecified “military target” in Haifa, Israel.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-25-2024

Pro-Palestinian protesters swarmed and vandalized the campaign buses of Democratic lawmakers who have been critical of Israel’s war effort against Hamas outside a rally on Saturday.

New York Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman, alongside Democratic Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, held a rally in the Bronx ahead of Tuesday’s New York primaries. A score of pro-Palestinian protesters graffitied the lawmakers’ buses as they attempted to leave the event, according to footage of the incident published on social media.

https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/22/pro-palestinian-protesters-swarm-campaign-busses-dems-easefire-gaza/

Insane people attacking corrupt and insane people!

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Hardline candidate Amir Hossein Ghazi Zadeh withdrew from the Iranian presidential election. Ghazi Zadeh did not appear to have a serious chance at winning and withdrew to avoid splitting votes across too many hardline candidates.
Iraq: A member of an Iranian-backed militia became the deputy chief of staff of the Iraqi PMF. The appointment reflects the significant control and influence that the loyal Iranian-backed militia has in the Iraqi security apparatus.
Gaza Strip: Israeli forces conducted airstrikes killing two Palestinian militia members involved in manufacturing and smuggling weapons in the Gaza Strip.
Yemen: The Houthis claimed that they conducted a combined drone attack with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq into Israel for the fourth time.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iranian hardliners have made only limited progress toward uniting behind a single candidate ahead of the Iranian presidential election. Remaining divisions among hardliners significantly increases the likelihood of a runoff vote.
Iraq: Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah are reportedly concerned that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias could escalate the war with Israel too far. Iran has thus hesitated to approve the militias’ plans to intervene if Israel launched a major military offensive into Lebanon.
West Bank: PIJ detonated a deep-buried IED targeting Israeli forces in the West Bank, killing one Israeli soldier and wounding 16 others. Palestinian militias previously conducted an EFP attack targeting Israeli forces in the area in July 2023.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-27-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iran held its presidential election on June 28. Iran will likely have to hold a runoff election on July 5 given that neither of the two hardline frontrunners—Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili—withdrew from the election before the first round of voting on June 28. Preliminary reports suggest that most Iranians did not participate in the June 28 election.

Iran: Reuters, citing an unpublished International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report, reported that Iran installed four new cascades of IR-6 centrifuges in Unit 1 of the Fordow fuel enrichment facility on June 28.

Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah discussed security developments in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip with Jamaa al Islamiya Secretary General Mohammed Taqoush on June 28.

Gaza: Palestinian fighters have conducted 24 attacks targeting Israeli forces advancing in Shujaiya since the IDF began its operation on June 27.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-28-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: No candidate received the majority of votes needed to win the Iranian presidential election. Iran will hold a runoff vote on July 5. Hardliner Saeed Jalili will likely win the runoff vote and become the next Iranian president.
Gaza Strip: The IDF 98th Division continued raids in Shujaiya, Gaza City. An Israeli military correspondent reported that Hamas' Shujaiya Battalion reconstituted after previous Israeli raids by recruiting new fighters and fighters who fled to Shujaiya from other parts of the strip.
Gaza Strip: The United States has proposed new language for the US-backed Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, according to three unspecified informed sources cited by Axios.
Yemen: The Houthis and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a combined drone attack targeting a commercial vessel in the Mediterranean Sea. This attack marks the sixth time that the Houthis have claimed a combined operation targeting Israel with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-29-2024

About your Institute for Middle East Understanding!

From their site:

About Us

Our Mission

The Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) is an independent non-profit organization that provides journalists with quick access to information about Palestine and the Palestinians, as well as expert sources, both in the United States and in the Middle East. Both through its website and its staff, the IMEU works with journalists to increase the public's understanding about the socio-economic, political, and cultural aspects of Palestine, Palestinians, and Palestinian Americans.

https://imeu.org/about

That is akin to taking Nazis at their word!

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Hardline presidential candidate Saeed Jalili will likely win the Iranian presidential election in the runoff race on July 5.
West Bank: Palestinian militia groups in the West Bank appear to be strengthening at the expense of the Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian Authority’s inability to exert effective control over refugee camps in the West Bank has significant implications for the post-war situation in the Gaza Strip, if statements to Western Media about strengthening militia groups in the West Bank are accurate.
Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF continued operations aimed at degrading a reconstituting Hamas Battalion in Shujaiya. Hamas commanders in Shujaiya may have formed a composite unit there by combining multiple degraded or combat ineffective units to form one combat effective unit. Forming a composite unit is one method through which reconstitution takes place.
Southern Gaza Strip: The IDF issued evacuation orders for eastern Khan Younis on July 1. These evacuation orders typically precede Israeli operations.
Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threatened to target US interests in Iraq and the Middle East in the event of an Israeli operation into southern Lebanon. The groups identified the under-construction Aqaba-Basra oil pipeline between Basra, Iraq, and Aqaba, Jordan, as a starting point for a new attack campaign.
Yemen: Houthi media published footage on June 30 of a Houthi attack targeting a bulk cargo carrier with a new model of unmanned surface vessel.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iranian reformist presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be gaining momentum ahead of the runoff presidential elections on July 2. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must determine if he will permit Pezeshkian to win the election if Pezeshkian maintains his lead over Jalili. Khamenei would risk further deteriorating regime legitimacy and possibly kickstarting unrest if Pezeshkian garners increased support in the coming days and Khamenei decides to undermine Pezeshkian’s ability to win the election.
Lebanon: A senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is attempting to publicly discourage US support for a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon.
Gaza Strip: Several current and former Israeli security officials told the New York Times that top Israeli generals disagree with political establishment’s war goals in the Gaza Strip. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari implied on June 19 that the IDF thinks the Israeli prime minister’s goal of destroying Hamas is not an achievable goal and that those advocated the goal are ”misleading the Israeli people.”
Yemen: The Houthis claimed on July 1 that it conducted four ballistic and cruise missile attacks targeting four commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Sea, and Indian Ocean. CTP-ISW cannot verify that these attacks occurred.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iran held its final debate before the upcoming presidential runoff election. Ultraconservative Saeed Jalili continued to downplay the importance of nuclear negotiations with the West. Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian tried to garner support from hardliners.
Lebanon: Israeli forces killed the commander responsible for Lebanese Hezbollah operations in southwestern Lebanon. Hezbollah has sustained almost daily attacks into northern Israel since October 2023, despite the IDF killing Hezbollah commanders throughout the war.
Gaza Strip: Qatar sent Hamas a revised ceasefire proposal for the Gaza Strip. Hamas has reviewed the proposal and sent its response to Israel. This comes after Hamas essentially rejected the most recent US-backed ceasefire proposal.
Syria: Iranian-backed militias have moved advanced weapons into Syria and established a drone assembly site in eastern Syria, according to Syrian opposition media.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-3-2024

IDF Shares Graphic Footage Of Alleged Hamas Members Beating Up Gazan Civilians!

https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1809147860950073736

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) shared graphic footage Friday of alleged Hamas members beating up hungry Gazan civilians.

The IDF alleged that while Israel made “great efforts to ensure the entry of aid” to the civilian population in the Gaza Strip, Hamas steals this aid and hides “it from Gazan civilians” in a tweet.

Gazan civilians alleged that the masked men seen beating and detaining them in the video were Hamas members, according to the IDF’s tweet. The alleged crime that these civilians allegedly committed was attempting “to enter a warehouse where humanitarian aid was stored,” the Israeli military said.

The video starts with a masked man spray painting the word “thief” in Arabic on the backs of blindfolded individuals. In the background, masked men could be seen beating a spray-painted blindfolded man with rods. The blindfolded man could be heard screaming in pain. A second man can be seen beaten in a similar fashion.

“They (Hamas) are thieves of humanity, they are the thieves and the corrupt, and they are destined only to disappear, because the truth is written and terrorism is inevitably fleeting,” the IDF Arabic Spokesman Lt. Col. Avichay Adraee tweeted alongside the same graphic video.

https://dailycaller.com/2024/07/05/idf-graphic-footage-alleged-hamas-beating-up-gazan-civilians/

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iran held the second round of its presidential election between ultraconservative hardliner candidate Saeed Jalili and moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian on July 5.
Ceasefire Negotiations: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a delegation led by Mossad Director David Barnea to Doha, Qatar on July 5 to continue ceasefire talks.
Gaza Strip: Hamas tactics and Shujaiya’s dense, urban terrain are presenting challenges for the IDF, in some cases requiring that Israeli infantry clear buildings multiple times.
Lebanon: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah discussed Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks and security developments in the Gaza Strip with a senior Hamas delegation in Beirut on July 5.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Moderate politician Massoud Pezeshkian won the Iranian presidential runoff election on July 5. Pezeshkian’s presidency is unlikely to generate meaningful changes within the regime. It is noteworthy, however, that Khamenei allowed Pezeshkian to win given that the next Iranian president may oversee Khamenei’s succession.
Ceasefire Negotiations: Anonymous Israeli officials said that the main sticking point in ceasefire negotiations centers around Article 14, which states that the United States, Egypt, and Qatar will “make every effort” to ensure negotiations end in an agreement and that a ceasefire is held as negotiations continue. Hamas seeks to remove the phrase “make every effort,” leaving only “ensure.”
Gaza Strip: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported on July 6 that the 98th Division located a weapons warehouse in Shujaiya containing long-range rockets and explosive charges.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

Ceasefire Negotiations: Hamas is continuing to resist Israeli and US efforts to create a phased ceasefire deal that would secure the release of Israeli hostages, end the war, and begin major reconstruction efforts in the Gaza Strip. The remaining gap in ceasefire negotiations is significant because agreeing to the most recent Hamas language would effectively commit Israel to the permanent ceasefire Hamas has been demanding before Hamas had released all remaining hostages. Hamas’ current demands could also enable Hamas to drag on negotiations indefinitely with no mechanism to compel it to release the remaining hostages.
Gaza Strip: Hamas military spokesperson Abu Obeida claimed on July 7 that Hamas has regenerated materiel and personnel across the Gaza Strip.
Iran: Post-election statements by both President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian and the supreme leader indicate that the Pezeshkian administration will not change the regime’s trajectory.
Northern Israel: Lebanese Hezbollah launched a heavy barrage of rockets targeting IDF air defense assets and surveillance equipment in response to a recent Israeli strike. Hezbollah aims to degrade Israel's integrated air defense system by targeting Mount Meron, which hosts air surveillance and battle management functions.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-7-2024

Capitol Police Investigating After Dem Rep. Brad Schneider’s Office Vandalized, Photos of Israeli Hostages Torn in "Vile Act of Hate"!

Illinois Democrat Rep. Brad Schneider announced on Friday that his office had been vandalized in what he described as a “vile act of hate,” which saw photos of hostages in Gaza — some of whom are Americans — being ripped off the wall. U.S. Capitol Police are looking into the incident but will not provide information, citing the need to “protect the investigation.”

“My Capitol office was vandalized yesterday in a vile act of hate in which the posters of the more than 100 people still held hostage in Gaza (including 8 Americans) were ripped from the wall, shredded and tossed across the hallway,” Schneider said in a post on X, sharing an image of the posters scattered across the hallway. Some of them were visibly crumpled up.

The congressman, who serves as co-chair of the congressional Israel Allies Caucus, continued, blasting the act as “shameful,” particularly as it happened on Independence Day.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/07/08/capitol-police-investigating-brad-schneider-office-vandalized-photos-hostages-ripped/

Leftists vandalize their own!

Facts and Falsehoods: Israel's Attacks Against Gaza's Hospitals

Israel's violent week-long February ground incursion into Nasser Hospital, the largest in southern Gaza, seems just a blip in the long litany of assaults that have killed more than 30,000 Palestinians and left almost the entire population of 2.3 million bereft of shelter, safety and basic order, food, clean water, and essential medical care.

Yet that attack continued Israel's relentless destruction of Gaza's already reeling health system, and provided a graphic, set piece microcosm of Israel's flagrant disregard of the oldest duty contained in the Geneva Conventions, dating to 1864, to respect and protect the wounded and sick.

https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/facts-and-falsehoods-israels-attacks-against-gazas-hospitals

Key Takeaways:

Iran-Russia cooperation: Iran is expanding its domestic drone and missile production capacities, which would enable further Iranian military support to Russia and the Axis of Resistance.
Iran Domestic Politics: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian appears to be associating himself with members of the moderate Hassan Rouhani administration, which was in power from 2013-21.
Gaza Strip: Israel and international mediators are weighing options for interdicting Hamas weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip in the event of an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-8-2024

CCP~~Wvit~~, when your only source is Hamas, all claims are lies!

On July 7, Hezbollah launched several rounds of rockets and anti-tank missiles at Israel, wounding at least four people. Two of those injured, including an American citizen, suffered serious wounds.

The attacks followed several days of escalating clashes. On July 4, Hezbollah launched more than 200 rockets and 20 drones at Israel, killing an IDF soldier. The Iranian-backed terrorist group followed these attacks up with the escalation on July 7. In both cases, Hezbollah claimed to be retaliating for Israel killing senior Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon.

As Hezbollah ramped up its attacks on Israel, Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant visited IDF troops in an armored brigade on Mount Hermon, the mountain at the northern end of the Golan Heights.

“These are critical days in terms of exercising our power against an enemy that only responds to force. Even if we reach an agreement in the southern arena, we will continue fighting here, until we bring Hezbollah to reach an agreement and ensure the safe return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes,” Gallant said.

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/op_eds/2024/07/07/hezbollah-rocket-barrage-on-israel-wounds-several-including-a-us-citizen/

Hamas attacks more Americans and Democrats cheer!

Key Takeaways:

Hamas: Hamas is threatening to end ceasefire negotiations with Israel in response to Israeli raids targeting Hamas fighters in Gaza City. This effort may seek to trigger increased international pressure on Israel to stop the raids.
Hamas in Iraq: Hamas has begun transporting unspecified equipment to Baghdad International Airport in preparation for relocating its political leadership to Iraq, according to an unspecified senior Shia Coordination Framework member.
Lebanon: Hezbollah released drone footage on July 9 reportedly showing various Israeli military sites in the Golan Heights.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-9-2024

Iran Helping Promote and Fund Anti-Israel Student Demonstrations, According to U.S. Director of National Intelligence!

This is my shocked face! “We have observed actors tied to Iran’s government posing as activists online, seeking to encourage protests, and even providing financial support to protesters.”

The Red (Marxist/Anarchist) – Green (Islamist) Alliance is a defining feature of the domestic U.S. student anti-Israel protests. I’ve written and spoken about it many times, dating back to last fall, “It’s an anti-Western culture on campuses which is revealing itself as antisemitism”: (https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/11/its-an-anti-western-culture-on-campuses-which-is-revealing-itself-as-antisemitism/)

It’s a deeply anti-Western cultural problem, which is taking itself out, as has happened of course for many centuries, on the Jewish population who are seen for whatever the reason as an easy target…. And that is led mostly on campuses by the left wing and the Islamists. So the so-called Red Green Alliance, that the far left and the Islamists all have the same enemy. And those two groups, the far left and the Islamists on campuses are very powerful and that is why Israel and Jews are being singled out. But people should understand that this is an anti-American culture on campuses. It’s an anti-Western culture on campuses which is revealing itself as antisemitism.

https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/07/iran-helping-promote-and-fund-anti-israel-student-demonstrations-according-to-u-s-director-of-national-intelligence/

Key Takeaways:

Iraq: Palestinian militias, including Hamas, are continuing to coordinate militarily and politically with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. PFLP, Hamas, and PIJ delegations recently met with senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders in Baghdad.
Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued new evacuation orders for all of Gaza City on July 10.
Southern Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah is adapting to evade Israeli detection and surveillance ahead of a possible major Israeli offensive into Lebanon. Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah separately tried to project strength and highlight Israeli weakness during a speech on July 10.
Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is apparently considering nominating Abbas Araghchi as his foreign affairs minister, underscoring Pezeshkian’s intent to seriously pursue nuclear negotiations with the West.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-10-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani has traveled to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria in recent days to meet with unspecified Axis of Resistance leaders, according to Iraqi media
Some senior IRGC commanders have emphasized in recent days the need for the Iranian political establishment, particularly hardliners, to accept and support Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian in order to preserve political stability.
Gaza Strip: International mediators are reportedly considering using 2,500 US-trained PA supporters from the Gaza Strip as an interim governing force in the Gaza Strip.
Russia: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attended the BRICS parliamentary forum in St. Petersburg, Russia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: Hamas continued to promote its postwar plan for a technocratic government to jointly rule the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Hamas is content with this plan because it expects to maintain a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip thereby controlling the government or evading its rule. Hamas would continue to shape, intimidate, and control a technocratic government if the group retains a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip.
Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian appointed former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as the chairman of his Steering Council to lead Pezeshkian’s transition into the presidency on July 12. This appointment is emblematic of Pezeshkian’s intent to seriously pursue negotiations with the West. Zarif’s appointment in the transition team illustrates how previously marginalized, moderate political elements are seeking to capitalize on Pezeshkian’s victory to re-enter the political conversations.
Iran in Russia: Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf conducted bilateral meetings with his counterparts from Russia, Ethiopia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Tajikistan on the sidelines of the BRICS parliamentary forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 11 and July 12.
Lebanon: A senior Hezbollah leader said in a speech on July 12 that Hezbollah must use military force, rather than diplomatic talks, to force Israel to end the war in the Gaza Strip.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-12-2024

The accidental death in May of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, a cleric of unwavering loyalty to the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, obliged Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to call for a new election. Mr. Khamenei surely views presidential elections with trepidation. They have for three decades routinely revealed the Iranian electorate’s distaste for him and the theocracy that actually controls the government. The regime now rigorously vets candidates to ensure that convulsive political movements don’t arise.

In many quarters, the victory of the relatively moderate Masoud Pezeshkian is seen as a rebuke to a system that had come to rely exclusively on reactionaries. That view is mistaken. The Islamic Republic is stronger than it was before the election. The supreme leader, who can prevent anyone from running for office and unquestionably rigged the 2009 presidential election, will likely benefit from having a president who is a physician rather than a dour, uninspiring mullah.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/meet-irans-new-boss-same-as-the-old-boss-jcpoa-elections-supreme-leader-486c05d8

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The IDF conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. The strike also targeted Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. Israel is still assessing whether the strike killed Deif or Salamah.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters six times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on July 12. PIJ fired small arms at the Israeli town Gan Ner in retaliation for Israel targeting Mohammed Deif.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least six attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cut-off on July 12.
Yemen: US CENTCOM destroyed three Houthi drones in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on July 12.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-13-2024

USAID boss Samantha Power has some news for Americans. Another $100 million for terrorists.

Today, Administrator Samantha Power announced that the United States, through USAID, will provide an additional $100 million in critical humanitarian assistance for Palestinians in dire need throughout Gaza and the West Bank.

Critical and dire need. So critical and so dire that we’ve been lied to and told that all the Islamic terrorists and their supporters have been starving to death for 8 months.

And yet somehow it never actually seems to happen,

Meanwhile, every Hamas terrorist leader is morbidly obese.

Biden announced $100 million in aid after the Hamas attacks. How much are we up to now?

https://www.frontpagemag.com/biden-sends-another-100m-to-palestinians/

Beijing Biden continues to fund Hamas!

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The IDF confirmed that it killed the commander of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade in an airstrike targeting senior Hamas officials in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF said that it is still assessing whether the airstrike killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif.
West Bank: A Palestinian fighter conducted a car ramming and shooting attack in central Israel, injuring four Israeli soldiers.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted nine attacks on northern Israel.
Yemen: The Houthis claimed two drone and missile attacks targeting a commercial vessel.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-14-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is articulating a foreign policy that is a continuation of the policies of his hardline predecessor even as Pezeshkian attempts to present himself to the West as a "reformist.”
Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not officially confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. Israeli journalists reported that the IDF assesses that the likelihood Deif survived the July 13 strike is “extremely slim,” however.
Israel: Israeli police and Shin Bet arrested three Israeli citizens accused of working for Iranian intelligence.
Yemen: The Houthis claimed three attacks on July 16 targeting civilian tankers in the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea on July 15.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-16-2024

Hamas rebuilt a terrorist base in the Gaza-based headquarters of the United Nations Palestinian Aid Agency (UNRWA) months after the Israeli military uncovered and destroyed a terror command center beneath the UN building.

“IDF forces operating in a compound used as the headquarters of UNRWA in Gaza found Hamas had rebuilt its military capabilities in the six months since troops withdrew from the area,” the Israeli news website YNET reported Monday.

The buildings of the UNRWA headquarters, designated as shelter for civilians, had been turned into a fortified base that was being used for the assembly of drones and as a weapons depot.

https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/07/hamas-rebuilt-terrorist-base-in-gazas-unrwa-hq-so-idf-destroyed-it/

Key Takeaways:

Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq.
Gaza Strip: Hamas likely retains the institutional knowledge and skilled commanders required to reconstitute despite the loss of several high-ranking Hamas commanders in the Gaza Strip since October 2023. The IDF has killed three of five Hamas Brigade commanders in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas Reconstitution: Hamas is deploying poorly trained new recruits in the Gaza Strip, probably due to its inability to effectively train new fighters amid Israeli military pressure. This inability to effectively train fighters will not persist if military pressure—from Israel or a different security force—does not continue.
Iran in Africa: Iran is still attempting to establish a permanent naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast following unsuccessful bilateral talks in March 2024. Sudanese Armed Forces officials reportedly rejected these Iranian proposals due to concerns about potential backlash from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Western countries.
Lebanon: Nasrallah gave a televised speech on July 17 commemorating the Shia holy Day of Ashura and stated that Hezbollah would hit new Israeli targets if Israel “continues to target civilians” in Lebanon. CTP-ISW has observed that Hezbollah has attacked areas further south in Israel in retaliation for recent Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah leaders.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

Yemen: The Houthis launched a one-way attack drone into Tel Aviv for the first time. The Houthis have conducted reconnaissance in force against Israeli air defenses in recent months, which may have enabled the attack.
Gaza Strip: Israel announced that there are “increasing indications” that Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, is dead. The IDF conducted an airstrike targeting Deif in the southern Gaza Strip on July 13.
Iran: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Iran has reduced its nuclear breakout time to one to two weeks. His comments come as Iran has in recent months expanded its nuclear program and run computer simulations that could help build a nuclear weapon.
Lebanon: The IDF conducted airstrikes into southern Lebanon, killing two officers from Lebanese Hezbollah’s Radwan unit. The Radwan unit is Hezbollah’s elite commando force and is designed to conduct ground attacks into Israel.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-19-2024

Key Takeaways:

Yemen: Houthi supreme leader Abdulmalik al Houthi announced the start of the fifth phase of Houthi escalations against Israel known as “Operation Jaffa,” claiming that Israelis are no longer safe in Israel’s main population centers.
Gaza Strip: The IDF confirmed on July 21 that it killed a prominent Hamas fighter and the Gaza Brigade commander in the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades in an airstrike on an unspecified date.
West Bank: Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters at least five times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 20.
Lebanon: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on July 20.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-21-2024

Key Takeaways:

Yemen: The modified Houthi drone that struck Tel Aviv flew at least 2,600 kilometers, demonstrating how Iran and its partners have expanded the geographic range of their weapon systems to target the eastern Mediterranean and other areas.
Iraq: US and Iraqi officials began talks on July 22 in Washington, DC, to continue negotiations over the end of the International Coalition’s mission in Iraq.
Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 98th Division launched a new clearing operation in Khan Younis on July 22 to disrupt Hamas’ efforts to reconstitute in the governorate.
West Bank: The Shin Bet said on July 22 that it uncovered a plot by Palestinian fighters to kidnap IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians in the West Bank.
Lebanon: A Wall Street Journal report on July 22 highlighted challenges that Israel faces intercepting drones targeting northern Israel.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-22-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are separately advancing an alternative post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that conflicts with a separate Chinese-mediated proposal for a unity government between Hamas and Fatah. The US-Israeli-UAE plan could move towards accomplishing Israeli war aims by protecting nascent, non-Hamas alternatives in the Gaza Strip. The Beijing proposal would amount to an Israeli defeat, if implemented.
Iraq: Four unspecified Iraqi sources cited by Reuters on July 22 claimed that an Iraqi delegation in Washington, DC, has requested the United States begin withdrawing its forces from Iraq starting in September 2024. CTP-ISW continues to assess that the United States and its partners in Iraq and Syria have successfully contained but not defeated ISIS and that a US withdrawal from Syria would very likely cause a rapid ISIS resurgence there within 12 to 24 months that would then spill into Iraq.
Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave a speech to Parliament in which he implicitly called on Parliament not to obstruct potential efforts by President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian to resume nuclear negotiations with the West. Khamenei simultaneously encouraged Parliament to work to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions. The pursuit of nuclear negotiations to lift sanctions caused by the nuclear program and an effort to mitigate the effects of sanctions in general are not mutually exclusive.
Houthi Attacks on Israel: Unspecified military sources in Sanaa told Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar on July 23 that the Houthis will target new civilian sites in Israel, which is consistent with the Houthi leader’s statements on July 21.
Houthi Threats Against Saudi Arabia: The Houthis appear to have successfully coerced Saudi Arabia into stopping a Yemeni government effort to cut Houthi access to the international finance system. Saudi Arabia likely pressured the Yemeni government to cancel its decisions to prevent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah may be expanding the locations it targets in northern Israel. This expansion follows threats by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to expand the group’s targets on July 17.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint meeting of the US Congress to discuss the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and international efforts to counter Iran and its Axis of Resistance.
Gaza Strip: Egypt may agree to a long-term Israeli presence along the Egypt-Gaza Strip border, according to an anonymous Israeli official.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah published drone footage of an IDF airbase in northern Israel as part of an effort to deter Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon.
Iraq: The United States and Iraq continued discussing their bilateral security partnership, which is in conflict with Iranian-backed efforts to expel US forces from Iraq.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

Netanyahu Visits Washington, DC: US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris met separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 25. Harris told Netanyahu that it is “time for this war to end” and that “it is time to get this [ceasefire] deal done.
Gaza Strip: US, Israeli, and Arab officials are reportedly considering former Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan, who could be palatable to all parties, as an interim leader of Palestinian security forces in the post-war Gaza Strip. The proposed 2,500-strong Palestinian security force is probably insufficient to counter Hamas’ future attempts to reassert control in the Gaza Strip, regardless of who leads the force. Hamas would need to agree to Dahlan or any other leader unless it is militarily defeated and unable to resist that force. Failing to defeat Hamas militarily will risk a resumption of de-facto or de-jure Hamas control in the Gaza Strip.
Iraq: Two unspecified security officials cited by Reuters reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched four rockets at Ain al Asad Airbase, Anbar, on July 25.
Iran: Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) head Mohammad Eslami claimed that Iran had exported nuclear materials and expertise to various unspecified countries in an interview with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website on July 22.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iraq: A new Iranian-backed Iraqi militia claimed two rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria. CTP-ISW previously reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their attacks targeting US forces.
Israel: Former US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida. They discussed the ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
Lebanon: An anonymous IRGC Quds Force official claimed that Iran gave electromagnetic munitions to Lebanese Hezbollah. This claim is part of a larger effort by Iran and its Axis of Resistance to deter a major Israeli military offensive into Lebanon.
Iran: Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian gave an interview to the official website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pezeshkian emphasized regime responsibility in addressing cultural and economic issues while reiterating his subordination to Khamenei.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

Rocket Attack in Northern Israel: Hezbollah likely conducted the July 27 rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children and “youths” in Majdal Shams, northern Israel. This attack is the consequence of a long, Hezbollah-initiated campaign targeting both civilian areas and military sites in northern Israel. Hezbollah began using more advanced systems to attack northern Israel in January, which increased the risk that a Hezbollah attack would cause significant casualties, either intentionally or due to a miscalculation.
Israeli Response to the Rocket Attack: Israeli political officials are currently weighing their response to this attack amid mounting domestic pressure to address Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel. Israeli military and political officials vowed to respond “harshly” to Hezbollah’s attack on Majdal Shams.
Lebanon: Israeli artillery shelled the alleged launch site for the Majdal Shams attack in Shebaa village on July 27.
Gaza Strip: The IDF issued evacuation orders for areas of Bureij and Shuhada in the central Gaza Strip on July 28.
Iraq and Syria: An unspecified senior Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada official claimed on July 28 that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee do not know which militia conducted the recent attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-28-2024

"The Democrats hate Israel": Trump slams Kamala, Democrats at New Jersey fundraiser!

Trump also said Vice President Kamala Harris "hates Israel" to the pro-Israel crowd.

On Sunday night during a private fundraiser (https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-president-trump-raises-12-million-in-one-night-at-silicon-valley-fundraiser-hosted-by-david-sacks?utm_campaign=64466) on the Jersey Shore, former President Donald Trump (https://thepostmillennial.com/trump-honors-brave-female-secret-service-agent-who-would-have-taken-a-bullet-for-him)told the group made up of many observant Jews, “The Democrats hate Israel.” The comments from Trump come as he just met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (https://thepostmillennial.com/trump-announces-meeting-with-netanyahu-at-mar-a-lago-friday?utm_campaign=64530?EdNo=249) last week.

The Republican told the pro-Israel crowd in Deal, New Jersey, "The Democrats hate Israel. The Democrats largely hate the Jewish people. It's time for the Jewish people to step up and vote for the Republicans and Donald Trump, and we're gonna save Israel.” Raucous cheers from the audience followed.

https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1817913035547091316

https://thepostmillennial.com/the-democrats-hate-israel-trump-slams-kamala-dems-at-new-jersey-fundraiser

Democrats continue to side with Hamas and Hezbollah along with their masters in Iran!

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian appointed former Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani administration officials as his first vice president and chief of staff, respectively.
Lebanon: The Israeli Security Cabinet approved an Israeli military response against Lebanese Hezbollah on July 28 as both Israeli officials and Hezbollah messaged that they do not want “all-out war” at this time.
Gaza Strip: Unspecified Israeli negotiators told an Israeli military correspondent that they are pessimistic that Israel and Hamas will reach a ceasefire agreement following a meeting with mediators in Rome on July 28. Separately, the IDF detained nine Israeli soldiers on July 29 for alleged "substantial abuse” of a Palestinian fighter whom the IDF detained for questioning.
West Bank: The IDF Central Command commander said that the IDF has increased security around Israeli settlements and increased “offensive” measures against Palestinian fighters in the West Bank.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) likely killed a senior Lebanese Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut on July 30. Hezbollah may decide to respond with a major rocket and drone barrage on northern Israel that resembles previous Hezbollah attacks in retaliation for previous IDF strikes on senior commanders. In an alternative scenario, Hezbollah may decide that in order to restore deterrence with Israel, it needs to conduct a more significant attack that targets civilian and military areas deep inside Israel.
Iran: Iran gave its “full blessing” to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to resume attacks targeting US forces if Israel conducts a “massive retaliatory assault” targeting Hezbollah and/or non-Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, according to a senior Iraqi militia leader who spoke to BBC on July 30. It is unclear whether Israel’s retaliatory strike targeting Fuad Shukr on July 30 constitutes a “massive retaliatory assault.”
Iraq and Syria: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has officially resumed its attack campaign targeting US forces in the Middle East. CTP-ISW assessed on July 17 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias appeared to have resumed their attack campaign targeting US forces in Iraq.
Iranian Presidential Inauguration: The Iranian Parliament swore in Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s ninth president on July 30. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and newly sworn-in President Masoud Pezeshkian held meetings with numerous foreign officials and Axis of Resistance leaders on the sidelines of the presidential inauguration on July 29 and 30.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-30-2024

The Chinese Foreign Ministry declared the Communist Party regime “firmly” opposed and “deeply concerned” on Thursday following the death of Hamas “political” chief Ismail Haniyeh in what appears to be a targeted strike the day before in Iran.

China, under the leadership of genocidal dictator Xi Jinping, has endeavored to make itself a relevant actor in the Middle East in part through cooperation with Hamas. Chinese Communist Party representatives met (https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2024/03/20/china-tells-hamas-chief-it-is-keen-on-relations-in-first-meeting-since-october-7/) with Haniyeh as recently as March, reportedly telling the leader of the terrorist organization that Beijing saw Hamas as “part of the Palestinian national fabric and China is keen on relations with it.” China has also attempted to broker several talks between Hamas and the rival entity “Fatah,” which controls the West Bank. Hamas is currently in control of Gaza, which it has used as a launching pad for terrorist massacres against the Israeli people.

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2024/08/01/hamas-ally-china-firmly-condemns-killing-of-top-terrorist-ismail-haniyeh/

As you can see, Democrats, Hamas, and China think alike!

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran is signaling that it will retaliate directly. One of the most dangerous courses of action would be Iran and the Axis of Resistance launching a large-scale, combined drone and missile attack into Israel.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah confirmed that Israel killed one of its seniormost commanders, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah will address the killing of Shukr during his funeral on August 1.
Iraq: The United States conducted a self-defense strike targeting Iranian backed militants in Iraq, who were preparing to launch a one-way attack drone. Iranian-backed militias have resumed their campaign to expel US forces from Iraq and Syria in recent days.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-31-2024

The White House announced new defensive military deployments to help Israel defend itself ahead of an expected retaliatory attack from Iran and/or its proxies elsewhere in the region.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday, during which the president “discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive U.S. military deployments,” according to a readout of the call.

Iran has vowed to respond to two presumed Israeli assassinations that occurred this week.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/world/3108662/us-announces-new-military-deployments-aid-israeli-defense/

Too little, too late!

Iran will have struck long before such forces are in place!

This is just a little feeble pandering in an attempt to retain Jewish voters!

Key Takeaways:

Syria: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have moved fighters and weapons to eastern Syria in order to attack US forces there, according to local Syrian reports. Iran directing a militia attack on US forces at the same time as an Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel could hinder the United States’ ability to defend Israel.
Iran: Anonymous Western intelligence sources told Sky News Arabia that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah may attack Israel on the Jewish holiday Tisha B’Av on August 12-13 in retaliation for Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh.
Israel: US and UK officials have engaged Israel to affirm support and coordinate defensive action in preparation for an Iranian-led attack on Israel.

.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) issued a statement on August 3 claiming that Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran using a short-range projectile equipped with an explosive warhead. The New York Times reported on August 3 that Iran has arrested over twenty-four individuals, including senior intelligence officers, military officers, and staff at the guesthouse, in connection to the security failure that led to the killing of Haniyeh.
Iran and Hezbollah: Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah have refused to speak with US and Arab diplomats trying to deescalate between Israel and Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal on August 3. The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States and Israel are preparing for an “unpredictable,” broader, and more complex attack than Iran’s April 2024 drone and missile strike on Israel.
Gaza: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck a Hamas command and control site in Hamama School, Sheikh Radwan, Gaza City on August 3. Hamas used the site to plan attacks on Israeli forces, manufacture and store weapons, and train fighters.
West Bank: The IDF killed nine Palestinian fighters, including a Hamas commander in Tulkarm, in two separate airstrikes on August 3.
Southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least eight attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August 2.
Yemen: The United Kingdom Maritime Transit Organization (UKMTO) reported a small explosion in close proximity to merchant vessel M/V Groton around 170 nautical miles east of Aden, Yemen.
Syria: The IDF reportedly struck a weapons convoy on August 3 west of Qusayir, Syria on route to the Bekaa Valley, Lebanon.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-3-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to Israel killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. CTP-ISW previously outlined this scenario as one of the most dangerous courses of action that Iran could pursue.
Iran could modify the April 2024 attack model in at least four ways to increase the likelihood of inflicting serious damage on Israel. Iran could fire more projectiles at Israel, change the number of locations targeted, or conduct a series of attacks over an extended period. Iran could also order simultaneous attacks on US forces.
Iran has dismissed calls from Western and Arab countries to temper its response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent days. Iranian state media and officials have also called for targeting senior Israeli officials as part of the retaliation.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-4-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation: Iranian armed forces-run Defa Press published a list of potential civilian and military targets in Israel on August 5, which likely aims to decrease Israel’s ability to effectively defend against an Iranian attack by causing Israel to air- and missile-defense assets and creating panic among civilians. These targets are not all proportionate with Haniyeh's killing, and publishing some of the targets likely seeks to create informational and economic effects instead of identifying precise targets. Other targets would be significant escalations and seem likely to cause civilian causalities, which Iran would likely calculate is counter-productive to efforts to establish deterrence with Israel.
West Bank: The IDF has deployed additional forces near Israeli communities adjacent to Tulkarm after receiving a credible threat that Hamas and other Palestinian militias may conduct an October 7-like infiltration operation into Israel from the West Bank.
Russia and Iran: Iran and Russia are continuing to promote increased cooperation ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel. Russian officials likely seek to coordinate with Iranian officials ahead of the strike given the implications an Iranian strike launched in part from Lebanon and Syria could have for Russian forces in Syria.
Jordan and Iran: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi in Tehran on August 4.
Iraq: An Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attack targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province injured multiple US servicemembers.
Iranian Cabinet Formation: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced three new appointments in his government on August 4. These appointments included a former Rouhani economic adviser, a former Central Bank deputy governor during the Ahmadinejad administration, and a former Tabriz MP and Tabriz City Council chairman who has worked previously with Pezeshkian.
Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force struck and killed the commander of Hamas’ Sheikh Radwan Battalion in Sheikh Radwan, southern Gaza City, on August 4.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation: Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani defended Iran’s impending retaliatory strike against Israel while signaling that Iran seeks to avoid a regional war during an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 7.
Hamas Succession: The Axis of Resistance and Iran are coalescing around Yahya Sinwar as Hamas’ new leader. Sinwar’s leadership is very unlikely to change Hamas’ maximalist position on ceasefire and hostage negotiations in the Gaza Strip.
Houthis in Iraq: The death of a Houthi drone expert responsible for training Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in the July 30 US strike in Iraq indicates a possible Iranian-backed effort to improve the targeting capabilities of the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias against both US forces and Israel. The Houthi decision to deploy this commander to Iraq to train Iraqi militias suggests that Iran and the Houthis seek to rapidly accelerate the training of these militias.
Russia and Iran: Russian officials are continuing coordination with Iran ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel out of concern for Russian interests in the region. Russia is also reportedly assisting Iranian efforts to improve its air defenses against Israeli attacks, according to the New York Times.
Iranian Nuclear Program: The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) highlighted a “notable increase” in Iranian statements on Iran’s ability to product a nuclear weapon, corroborating previous CTP-ISW reporting. CTP-ISW has noted that senior Iranian officials have normalized public discussions about Iran’s ability to procure a nuclear weapon.
Jordan: Qatari-owned, London-based al Araby al Jadeed reported on August 6 that Jordan expressed concern to Iraq about Iranian-backed Iraqi militias’ presence along the Jordan-Iraq border, citing two Iraqi officials. Jordan is reportedly particularly concerned about the possibility that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias will fire drones and missiles from areas close to the Jordanian border towards Israel.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-7-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation: CTP-ISW continues to assess that a coordinated large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel by Iran and its Axis of Resistance is the most likely Iranian response to Israel’s killing of senior axis leaders. Iranian leaders may decide that Iran cannot successfully design and execute a strike that would penetrate Israeli air defenses to establish deterrence, despite strong statements by its officials and media. Iranian leaders may additionally calculate that the risk of triggering a large-scale Israeli response is too high to justify conducting a coordinated large-scale missile and drone attack.
Hezbollah Retaliation: Divergent goals and priorities between Iran and Hezbollah could create friction between the two and disagreement on the timing and coordination of an attack. These divisions may be appearing because Hezbollah and Iran have different constraints and goals for a retaliatory attack on Israel. Both groups want to establish deterrence with Israel but may have differing urgency.
Iranian Government Formation: An unspecified informed source told IRGC-affiliated media on August 8 that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has nominated his foreign affairs, defense, and intelligence ministers. Pezeshkian very likely had to receive approval from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei prior to nominating these ministers given the sensitive nature of their positions. The intelligence minister also served under former hardline President Ebrahim Raisi.
Gaza Strip: The Hamas Khan Younis Brigade is building improvised explosive devices from unexploded ordinance as part of its effort to regenerate forces there. This report is consistent with a June 2024 report from Israeli Army Radio, which is a state-owned news outlet run by the IDF, that said Hamas is establishing small weapons manufacturing sites across the Strip. The manufacture of IEDs on a small scale, however, does not indicate full or large-scale reconstitution of forces to fully supplied or manned levels.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-8-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation: CTP-ISW continues to assess that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will likely conduct a coordinated strike targeting Israel in retaliation for the death of former Hamas Political Bureau head Ismail Haniyeh on July 31. This coordinated strike will likely include two waves of attacks from Iran and its Axis of Resistance. Iran and Hezbollah leaders may choose to conduct separate waves of attacks—as described by The New York Times on August 9—to satisfy divergent goals and priorities.
Iranian President and the IRGC: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is reportedly at odds with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) over how to respond to Israel’s killing of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, highlighting the likely existence of fissures between the relatively moderate president and some elements of the IRGC. It is not surprising that Pezeshkian would oppose a direct attack on Israel, given Pezeshkian’s position and foreign policy priorities.
Sinwar and Ceasefire Negotiations: The United States, United Arab Emirates, and Egypt released a joint statement on August 8 calling upon Israel and Hamas to join a final round of ceasefire and hostage negotiations. UAE state-owned media and Israeli media circulated conflicting reports on August 8 about Yahya Sinwar’s current posture on ceasefire and hostage negotiations with Israel. Sinwar’s position remains unclear, and it is not possible to assess the outcome of this round of negotiations with any certainty.
Iran-Belarus: Iran is continuing its efforts to develop military and defense cooperation with Belarus.
Iranian Nuclear Program: An unspecified US official told the Wall Street Journal on August 9 that the US intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon but is improving its ability to do so if it chooses.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-9-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation: Different elements of the Iranian regime have advocated for varying responses to Israel’s killing of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. The general trends reflected in Iranian rhetoric, however, support CTP-ISW's ongoing assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale attack on Israel. The different messages across the regime are very likely emblematic of differences in opinion between different camps in the regime. The messages may also reflect changes in position within these camps. It is not possible to conclusively determine from individual statements exactly how and when Iran will respond to Israel given that these statements intentionally and unintentionally obfuscate regime discussions and Iran’s intent behind a potential attack.
Iraq and Syria: Unspecified Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters conducted a drone attack targeting US forces at the Rumalyn Landing Zone in Hasakah Province, Syria, on August 9.
Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force targeted a group of Hamas fighters in a mosque at the al Tabaeen school in al Daraj, Gaza City on August 10.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-10-2024

Hamas refuses to attend Gaza cease-fire talks as Biden says it’s ‘still possible’ to reach deal!

Hamas urges mediators to submit plan to implement what was agreed on last month!

The Palestinian terrorist group Hamas said Sunday it would not participate in new negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza this week unless mediators presented a plan based on previous talks.

"The movement calls on the mediators to present a plan to implement what was agreed upon by the movement on July 2, 2024, based on [President] Biden’s vision and the UN Security Council resolution," Hamas said in a statement posted on Telegram.

The terrorist group, which is still holding dozens of hostages including Americans, said it has shown "flexibility" throughout the negotiating process but that Israeli actions – including the assassination of its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last month – indicate it is not serious about pursuing a cease-fire agreement.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/hamas-refuses-attend-gaza-ceasefire-talks-biden-says-its-still-possible-reach-deal

https://www.youtube.com/v/opn18LVJg9A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opn18LVJg9A

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation: Iran has not retaliated quickly against Israel because Iran very likely seeks to ensure that its next attack restores deterrence with Israel while simultaneously avoiding a large-scale war. Iran also intends to stoke fear and anxiety among Israelis by slowing its response and capitalizing on speculation about when and how it will respond.
Iraq and Syria: The August 10 drone attack that targeted US forces at the Rumalyn Landing Zone in northeastern Syria wounded several US and coalition personnel. An unspecified US official told Reuters that some personnel are undergoing testing for traumatic brain injuries.
Gaza Strip: The IDF issued evacuation orders for central Khan Younis on August 10.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Ceasefire-Hostage Negotiations: Hamas has rejected optimism from US and international mediators that a ceasefire-hostage agreement is close to being reached.
Iranian Retaliation: The United States and foreign mediators are maintaining pressure on Iran to delay an attack targeting Israel by threatening Iran and highlighting reported ceasefire progress.
Gaza: The IDF 98th Division expanded its clearing operation in Khan Younis on August 17. Israeli forces located and destroyed Hamas infrastructure and engaged Palestinian fighters.
Lebanon: Hezbollah launched at least 55 rockets into northern Israel on August 17 in retaliation for an IDF strike in Nabatieh that killed 10 civilians.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in at least two locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August 16.
Yemen: US Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed a Houthi naval attack drone in the Red Sea on August 16.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation and Ceasefire Negotiations: The United States, Israel, and international mediators plan to continue ceasefire talks despite Hamas’ rejection of the latest ceasefire-hostage proposal. Iranian officials suggested that Iran will delay its retaliation against Israel for the death of former Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh until after ceasefire negotiations conclude.
Gaza Strip: An unspecified source “familiar with the [ceasefire] talks” told a Lebanese news outlet that Egypt agreed not to set a timeline for an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor during talks in Cairo. Control over the Philadelphi Corridor by the IDF or another entity capable of preventing smuggling and the operation of tunnels will prevent Hamas and other Palestinian militias from rebuilding their capabilities quickly. Controlling the corridor would very likely make it extremely difficult for Hamas to reconstitute itself to the levels it had achieved prior to October 7 in any short period of time.
Terror Attack in Tel Aviv: Hamas claimed its first suicide attack in Israel since 2008. Hamas threatened further suicide attacks, which may indicate a shift in tactics as IDF operations destroy Hamas rocket supplies and limit Hamas’ ability to conduct rocket attacks.
Iranian Presidential Cabinet Formation: Iranian ministerial nominees outlined their agendas to Parliament on August 18 and 19. The nominees’ proposed policies are largely consistent with current regime policies.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-19-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian attack on Israel: Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials have continued signaling that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks.
Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage negotiations: Disagreements between Egypt and Israel over control of the Egypt-Gaza Strip border remain an obstacle to a ceasefire-hostage agreement.
Iraq: Several Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to resume attacks targeting US forces in order to expel the United States from the Middle East.
Iran: IRGC Rear Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian will likely keep his current position as secretary of the Iranian SNSC under the Masoud Pezeshkian administration, according to United Kingdom-based Amwaj Media.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-20-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation: The Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN suggested on August 20 that Iran’s Axis of Resistance could conduct a ground attack into Israel in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks. The Iranian UN mission likely published this statement to generate psychological and informational effects, rather than to signal Iran’s serious intention to conduct a ground attack into Israel imminently. Iran and its Axis of Resistance are unlikely to risk triggering a large-scale war with Israel by conducting a ground operation into Israeli territory, and more likely seek to stoke fear and anxiety in Israeli society by presenting such an operation as a possible response to Haniyeh’s death.
Risk of Major Iranian Drone and Missile Attack: CTP-ISW is currently not prepared to change its assessment that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale attack targeting Israel. Some recent Iranian statements and Western media reports diverge from CTP-ISW's ongoing assessment. CTP-ISW does not dismiss the divergent statements and reports. These statements and reports, however, most likely do not reflect the views of the Iranian security establishment and members of the chain of command who are ultimately responsible for deciding and implementing Iran’s response.
Iran’s Presidential Cabinet: The Iranian Parliament approved all 19 of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s ministerial nominees on August 21. Pezeshkian’s selection and Khamenei’s approval of this slate of ministers sought to establish a cabinet based on “unity” between political factions. This strategy probably also increased the likelihood Parliament would approve the nominees.
Iranian Nuclear Program: An unspecified Iranian official claimed that there is an ongoing “high-level debate” within Iran over the continued utility of the supreme leader’s 2003 fatwa against nuclear weapons. This debate is consistent with previous statements from Iranian officials that normalized discussions about Iran’s ability to procure nuclear weapons. There are some indications that Iran is setting conditions to be able to quickly move towards a weapon, should it choose to do so.
Rafah: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that it has defeated Hamas’ Rafah Brigade. Egyptian security sources told Reuters that Egypt would be open to an international presence along the Philadelphi Corridor for up to six months. Maintaining Israeli control of the Philadelphi Corridor will prevent Hamas and other Palestinian militias from rebuilding their capabilities quickly by interdicting major smuggling operations into the Gaza Strip that would accelerate Hamas’ ability to resupply itself.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-21-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation: Iranian interest in the progress of Gaza Strip ceasefire-hostage negotiations suggests that elements of the Iranian regime are likely delaying a retaliatory strike on Israel until ceasefire talks conclude. The Iranian security establishment may calculate that a continued delay will generate operational surprise while forgoing strategic surprise, though the continued Iranian delay has also enabled the United States to move more assets into the theater to defend against an attack.
Axis of Resistance Information Efforts: Houthi supreme leader Abdulmalik al Houthi highlighted the psychological effects of delaying the retaliatory strike, which is consistent with Iranian efforts to use the delay to generate psychological effects.
Philadelphi Corridor: Egyptian officials cited by the Wall Street Journal on August 22 said that Egypt has refused any Israeli presence on the Philadelphi Corridor, which runs along the Egypt-Gaza Strip border. The officials argued that Israel’s presence would violate the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty and claimed that Egypt does not want to appear complicit in allowing Israeli forces to remain in the Gaza Strip.
Red Sea: Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea claimed responsibility on August 22 for the August 21 attack targeting the Greek-flagged Sounion oil tanker and Panama-flagged SW North Wind I cargo ship in the Red Sea. The EU military mission in the Red Sea evacuated the Sounion’s crew and added that the Sounion is still floating but it is carrying 150,000 metric tons of crude oil and could become a ”navigational and environmental hazard.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-22-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation: The factors seemingly driving Iran to delay its direct attack on Israel are temporary. These factors will disappear with time, which would increase the likelihood of an Iranian attack on Israel. These factors include ongoing ceasefire-hostage talks between Israel and Hamas, the US-Israeli deterrent posture, and internal Iranian coordination and planning.
Deterring an Iranian Retaliation: The implication by US officials that the US deterrent posture in the Middle East decreases the risk of an Iranian attack would simultaneously imply that changing or removing the US deterrent posture increases the risk of an Iranian attack. To the extent that Iranian calculus is, in fact, affected by the US military posture in the region, recent statements by Pentagon officials imply that changing or removing that posture would increase the likelihood of an Iranian attack. Maintaining the US deterrent posture in the region is possible but would be tantamount to a shift in US global priorities that is inconsistent with the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS).
Hamas External Operations: Palestinian sources told Israeli media that Hamas has decided to begin targeting Israeli civilians abroad, possibly due to Hamas’ decreasing ability to conduct attacks into Israel.
Gaza Strip Ceasefire: Unspecified Hamas officials said that Hamas has rejected multiple elements of the latest US bridging proposal.
Iraq: Some Iranian-backed Iraqi militias told Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani that they would refrain from attacking US forces for the moment, according to an adviser to the Iraqi federal government speaking to Lebanese media.
Iran: Unknown gunmen shot and killed the deputy police chief for security of Khash City, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Iran, on August 23.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a drone and rocket attack on Israel in response to Israel killing a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr. Hezbollah meant for its attack to be much larger than it was.
Hezbollah and the rest of the Axis of Resistance have indicated that the Hezbollah attack is only the beginning of their retaliation. The Axis of Resistance will likely learn lessons from the Hezbollah attack in order to improve the efficacy of future attacks on Israel.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei referenced the Axis of Resistance’s war against Israel during a prayer ceremony in Tehran.
Hamas rejected Israel’s “new ceasefire conditions” following negotiations between US, Egyptian, Israeli, and Qatari officials in Cairo.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage negotiations: Iran has reportedly tried to insert itself into the ceasefire-hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Iran has reportedly used the threat of its attack on Israel to obtain a greater role in the “Palestinian file.”
Gaza Strip: Israeli forces rescued an Israeli hostage in an underground tunnel in the southern Gaza Strip. The individual is the first living hostage whom Israeli forces have recovered from an underground tunnel in the war.
Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and his newly formed cabinet. Khamenei focused the meeting on addressing economic issues. Khamenei also expressed openness to nuclear negotiations with the West.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-27-2024

Key Takeaways:

West Bank: Israeli forces launched a large-scale counterterrorism operation into the West Bank to degrade militia networks there. The operation is partly a response to the Palestinian militias there building the capability to conduct suicide bombing attacks in Israel.
Gaza Strip: There are reportedly worsening internal fissures among Palestinian militias in the Gaza Strip. Some militias have reportedly considered conducting a “coup” against Hamas in response to disagreements over the ceasefire-hostage negotiations with Israel.
Iran: Iranian AFGS Chief Mohammad Bagheri restated the Iranian intent to retaliate for Israel killing Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran has delayed its attack at least partly to stoke anxiety and fear among the Israeli public.
Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage negotiations: The IDF has begun paving an asphalt road along the Philadelphi Corridor between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. Paving the route will make it harder for Palestinian militias to plant IEDs along it.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-28-2024

Remember, Beijing Biden and Cackling Kamala funded the October 7 attacks and the resulting war!

Key Takeaways:

Polio Vaccinations in the Gaza Strip: US and international health officials confirmed on August 29 that Israel has agreed to implement a temporary humanitarian pause in the Gaza Strip to vaccinate children against polio.
Gaza Strip: Israeli military sources said that IDF operations in Rafah caused the “collapse” of Hamas’ Rafah Brigade. Hamas’ recent attack rate in Rafah indicates that the Rafah Brigade may be severely degraded. Recent Hamas attacks have also appeared to lack clear tactical or operational objectives, unlike Hamas actions in May, June, and July.
Nuclear Negotiations: Iran has increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency report obtained by the Associated Press.
Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage negotiations: Unspecified sources familiar with the ongoing ceasefire-hostage negotiations told Israeli media on August 28 that Israeli mediators have made “progress” during negotiations in Doha.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

West Bank: At least two Palestinian fighters attempted to carry out two coordinated car bombing attacks in the Gush Etzion area of the West Bank on August 30. No militia has claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing, though the attack targeting IDF settlements is consistent with recent Hamas threats to target Israeli settlers in the West Bank.
Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force targeted and killed PIJ's Central Camps Brigade commander Muhammad Qatrawi in the central Gaza Strip on August 30.
Northern Israel: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least six attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August 30.
Red Sea: The Houthis claimed an attack targeting Liberian-flagged container ship M/V GROTON in the Gulf of Aden on August 31.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-31-2024

Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23, the American-Israeli hostage who lost his left hand when being abducted by Hamas from the Nova music festival on October 7, has been found dead in Gaza by Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers.

Goldberg-Polin was identified after news broke Saturday that the IDF had discovered a number of unidentified bodies in Gaza. Amid rumors spreading throughout Israel on social media, the IDF asked the public to wait before it had identified the bodies.

In a statement, the IDF said:

The IDF located a number of bodies during combat in the Gaza Strip. At this time, the troops are still operating in the area and are carrying out a process to extract and identify the bodies that will last several hours. We ask to refrain from spreading rumors.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/31/american-israeli-hostage-hersh-goldberg-polin-found-dead-in-gaza-murdered-by-hamas/

Kidnapped American murdered by the people Harris/Walz/Biden continues to financially and materially support!

Key Takeaways:

Ceasefire Talks: A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander reiterated Iran’s support for Hamas’ maximalist ceasefire demands on September 1. IRGC-affiliated media indicated on August 31 that some elements of the Iranian regime are likely continuing to try to delay a retaliatory strike on Israel until the ongoing ceasefire-hostage negotiations conclude.
Hostage Recovery: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recovered the bodies of six Israeli hostages from a tunnel in Rafah on September 1. Hamas blamed Israel for the hostage’s death and recovery, claiming that Israel is ultimately responsible for the deaths by failing to agree to a ceasefire.
Gaza Strip: A humanitarian pause began September 1 in the central Gaza Strip to enable humanitarian aid groups to start a mass polio vaccination campaign.
West Bank: The IDF continued raids in Jenin for the sixth consecutive day as part of the IDF effort to degrade Palestinian militia networks in the West Bank.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Senior Iranian military officials have continued messaging that they will retaliate for Israel killing Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Ceasefire Negotiations: The Biden administration is reportedly reevaluating its approach to ceasefire-hostage negotiations after Hamas killed six hostages, according to an unspecified US officials cited by Axios on September 5. Hamas is using its execution of the six hostages to conduct a series of information operations that are designed to degrade Israeli will and force Israel end the war on terms favorable to Hamas, which would ultimately lead to an Israeli defeat.
Caucasus: Iranian and Russian officials met to discuss the Caucasus amid growing differences between Moscow and Tehran.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

West Bank: A Jordanian truck driver killed three Israelis present at the Allenby Bridge border crossing between Jordan and the West Bank on September 8.
Iranian Retaliation: Senior Iranian military officials have continued to signal that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks.
Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force struck and killed Hamas’ eastern Khan Younis Battalion rocket commander on September 3. The IDF said on September 8 that the commander launched rockets at towns near the Gaza Strip and central Israel throughout the war.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-8-2024

Key Takeaways:

Hamas’ Military Effectiveness: An IDF officer said that Hamas no longer functions as a conventional military organization but added that the IDF requires another year to fully destroy Hamas’ military and governance capabilities. Hamas information captured by the IDF and released by Israel supports the assertion that the IDF has severely degraded Hamas’ military capabilities. Degradation is a temporary military effect and must be sustained by further military action or policy options to, at minimum, disrupt or prevent reconstitution.
Iraq: Possible Iranian-backed Iraqi militants attacked a US diplomatic compound near Baghdad International Airport on September 10. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of this writing. It is more likely, however, that an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia—rather than the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)—conducted the attack. An unspecified military official told AFP that the fighters launched two Katyusha rockets targeting the facility.
Iran and BRICS: Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNCS) Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian called for a BRICS security commission and “Joint economic mechanisms” to address a number of security issues during a BRICS security meeting on September 11.
Ceasefire Negotiations: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will almost certainly reject a deal for his safety in exchange for Hamas surrender. There have been no indications that Sinwar would moderate his stance to protect his own life or benefit himself, either in this war or during previous negotiations with Israel. Sinwar has maintained his hardline stance in negotiations throughout the war and he previously opposed the prisoner-hostage exchange deal in 2011 that freed him. Sinwar opposed the 2011 deal on the grounds that other Hamas fighters serving multiple life sentences were not freed alongside him.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

Syria: Israeli special operations forces conducted a highly unusual raid into Syria to destroy a major Iranian-backed precision missile factory and recover intelligence from it. The raid is part of a concerted Israeli effort to disrupt Iranian-backed weapons supply networks in the Levant.
Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage negotiations: A Hamas delegation met with Egyptian and Qatari mediators to discuss the number of Palestinian prisoners freed in a potential agreement. Egyptian and Qatari mediators pressed Hamas to lessen its demands.
Gaza Strip: The IDF 162^nd Division commander announced that Hamas’ Rafah Brigade is “dismantled” and that the IDF has secured control of the urban Rafah area. Recent Hamas attacks in Rafah indicate that the brigade is severely degraded.
Iraq: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian continued his official visit to Iraq. Pezeshkian met with Iranian-backed politicians and militia leaders in Baghdad. Pezeshkian has traveled to Iraqi Kurdistan to meet with local officials there.
Caucasus: Iran and Russia are downplaying their disagreement over the Zangezur Corridor project that would connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. Neither Iran nor Russia likely seek to antagonize the other, especially as they pursue bilateral arms deals.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-12-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: The IDF 162nd Division killed over 100 Hamas fighters and located Hamas infrastructure in Tel al Sultan over the past week.
West Bank: Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in two locations across the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on September 13.
Lebanon: Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least 15 attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on September 13.
Yemen: US Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed three Houthi drones and one Houthi “support vehicle” in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on September 13.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-14-2024

Hundreds of alleged members of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror organization were wounded on Tuesday when their pagers, which apparently had been hacked, exploded simultaneously in Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon.
Reuters reported (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/):

Hundreds of members of the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, including fighters and medics, were seriously wounded on Tuesday when the pagers they use to communicate exploded, a security source told Reuters.
A Hezbollah official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the detonation of the pagers was the “biggest security breach” the group had been subjected to in nearly a year of war with Israel.
A Reuters journalist saw ambulances rushing through the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut amid widespread panic. Residents said explosions were taking place even 30 minutes after the initial blasts.

https://twitter.com/sputnik_ar/status/1836035175337075164

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2024/09/17/graphic-content-warning-hundreds-of-hezbollah-members-wounded-when-pagers-explode/

They deserve far worse!

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: Israel is refocusing its operations in the Gaza Strip to prioritize “destroying the pillars of Hamas’ civil rule. . . especially the distribution of humanitarian aid.” An Israeli official said that controlling aid distribution allows Hamas to project the image that it still controls the Gazan population.
Iranian nuclear program: Iran is simultaneously setting conditions to build a nuclear weapon while continuing to signal openness to nuclear negotiations with the West. Russia has increased nuclear cooperation with Iran in line with Iranian “ambitions to obtain atomic weapons,” according to Western media.
Iranian economy: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian discussed parts of his agenda to strengthen Iran’s economic relationships abroad during his first press conference. Pezeshkian advocated for Iran complying with international money laundering and financial transparency standards, which Iranian hardliners have historically opposed.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-16-2024

Key Takeaways:

Israel-Hezbollah conflict: Israel simultaneously detonated thousands of pagers used by Lebanese Hezbollah across Lebanon and Syria. The attack has likely had several negative effects on Hezbollah military effectiveness at least temporarily.
Israel-Hezbollah conflict: The Israeli security cabinet approved “returning the residents of the north securely to their homes” as an official war aim. Israeli leaders seek to push Hezbollah away from the Israel-Lebanon border to allow displaced citizens to return to northern Israel.
Gaza Strip: The IDF is in the process of defeating Hamas militarily in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is projecting confidence outwardly that it will survive in the Gaza Strip as part of an information operation to erode Israeli will to sustain the war.
Iran-Russia cooperation: Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu arrived in Iran on an unannounced visit following recent visits to North Korea and Syria and amid ongoing Kremlin efforts to secure military support from allies.
Iranian nuclear program: A Washington-based think tank reported that Iran has in recent months increased its operations at two nuclear sites that were previously used for high explosive testing. This activity could shorten the Iranian nuclear breakout timeline to a week.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-17-2024

On Thursday, Hezbollah terrorist Fadel Abbas Bazzi’s coffin was hauled through the streets of Beirut’s southern suburb of Ghobeiry. He was killed in the attack that caused pagers and walkie-talkies used by the Iran-backed paramilitary group to explode.

On Sunday, his family and friends in Dearborn will gather at the Islamic Institute of Knowledge to pay their respects for the man they consider a “martyr.”

“A Mosque in Dearborn, Michigan has released a Flyer for a Memorial Service being held Sunday for Fadl Abbas Bazzi, one of the Hezbollah Terrorists that was Eliminated today in Lebanon, with it appearing that some of Bazzi’s Family live in or around Dearborn,” OSINTdefender posted to X (https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836590781924299084?s=43&t=CpiDDVgx8CP3JE3hAtL8zw).

A Mosque in Dearborn, Michigan has released a Flyer for a Memorial Service being held Sunday for Fadl Abbas Bazzi, one of the Hezbollah Terrorists that was Eliminated today in Lebanon, with it appearing that some of Bazzi’s Family live in or around Dearborn.

Why is an… pic.twitter.com/67BpT5jxiw (https://t.co/67BpT5jxiw)

OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 19, 2024 (https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1836590781924299084?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)

https://www.themidwesterner.news/2024/09/dearborn-mosque-to-hold-memorial-service-for-hezbollah-martyr-killed-in-pager-explosion/

Many Democrats are in mourning!

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: Israel has issued new security protocols for some of its northern communities in anticipation of intensifying conflict with Lebanese Hezbollah. The new measures are in response to indications that Hezbollah was preparing to launch rockets into areas.
Lebanon: The IDF reportedly exploited an “operational opportunity” in conducting its airstrike targeting the Hezbollah Radwan commanders in southern Beirut. CTP-ISW has previously observed that Israel appears to be exploiting disarray in Hezbollah in order to inflict further damage on the group.
Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have continued to threaten to intervene in an Israel-Hezbollah war. The militias likely seek to deter a major Israeli offensive into Lebanon but could still follow through on their threats in the event of intensifying conflict.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-21-2024

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: Israel set new war objectives for Lebanon on September 16. Accomplishing these objectives would require the IDF to undertake a second major military campaign in Lebanon as part of the October 7 War. Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon is part of an Israeli effort to prevent Hezbollah from accomplishing its war aim, which is to enable Hamas’ survival and ability to rebuild itself in the Gaza Strip. Nasrallah is extremely unlikely to give the order to cease Hezbollah rocket attacks into northern Israel because he must continue to support his partners in the Axis of Resistance, as CTP-ISW has previously noted.
Israeli Air Campaign in Lebanon: The IDF reported on September 23 that it struck over 800 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and is preparing to strike targets in the Bekaa Valley. The IDF conducted an airstrike on September 23 targeting the commander of Hezbollah’s southern front Ali Karaki in Dahiya neighborhood, Beirut, according to sources in the IDF.
Hezbollah Attack Campaign in Israel: Lebanese Hezbollah expanded the depth of its attack campaign against Israeli civilians by targeting Israeli settlements in the West Bank on September 23.
Nuclear Negotiations: Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on September 23 that the Masoud Pezeshkian administration is willing to resume nuclear negotiations.
Gaza Strip: Hamas has published and attributed several messages to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in recent weeks. Israeli intelligence officials assess that Sinwar did not write the messages himself.
Iraq: An Iranian-backed Iraqi militia member told Lebanese outlet al Akhbar on September 23 that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias’ “scope of [Israeli] targets” has expanded due to recent Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: The intensifying operations between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah are part of the broader war that Israel has fought since October 7, 2023. Hezbollah has conducted almost daily attacks into Israel since the war began in order to compel Israel to accept defeat in the Gaza Strip and thus preserve Hamas. Agreeing to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to stop Hezbollah fire into northern Israel would not satisfy Israel’s war objectives, nor would it discourage similar Hezbollah operations in the future.
Israeli Air Campaign in Lebanon: The IDF continued its air campaign into Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah capabilities on September 23 and 24. The IDF reported on September 23 that it struck around 1,600 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley over the past day.
Iranian Response to Israeli Operations in Lebanon: Iran declined a request by Lebanese Hezbollah in recent days to conduct a direct attack targeting Israel, according to two unspecified Israeli officials and an unspecified Western diplomat speaking to Axios on September 24.
Hezbollah Attack Campaign in Israel: Lebanese Hezbollah continued its expanded attack campaign against Israel by targeting several new Israeli civilian and military sites on September 23 and 24.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-24-2024

https://www.youtube.com/v/tsgGDKvihrY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsgGDKvihrY

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: Israeli sources provided additional details on some military effects that Israel is trying to achieve in Lebanon. Lebanese Hezbollah continued to fire rockets targeting Israeli civilian and military locations in northern Israel.
Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah called on other Iraqi militias to increase the “level and size” of their attacks on Israel. Iraqi militias have conducted regular drone and missile attacks targeting Israel in recent months.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it began a "targeted and delimited ground operation in southern Lebanon" on September 30. It is unclear where or if the IDF has entered southern Lebanon in force at the time of writing. Western media reported on September 30 that Israeli special operations forces have already been conducting cross-border raids “to gather intelligence” ahead of the operation since last week, citing unspecified sources.
Iranian Response to Israeli Operations in Lebanon: Iran will likely not be able to intervene in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in a way that meaningfully impacts the outcome of the conflict. Iran could take other measures to harm Israeli and US interests in an effort to stop Israeli operations against Hezbollah. These actions would likely also fail to meaningfully disrupt current Israeli operations in Lebanon.
Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed four attacks on Israel on September 30.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-30-2024

https://www.youtube.com/v/vNEqR9dauY8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNEqR9dauY8

What will Democrats do when Iran nukes Israel?

https://www.youtube.com/v/kWbesE06-3A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWbesE06-3A

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Ballistic Missile Attack in Israel: Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on October 1. Iran likely intended to inflict significant damage on Israel by oversaturating Israeli air defenses, particularly in central Israel.
Israeli Ground Operation in Lebanon: The IDF began the initial phase of its ground operation in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has not yet engaged IDF units in Lebanon as of the time of writing. Hezbollah may not engage Israeli forces while Israeli forces are only staging “sporadic raids” that do not remain in Lebanon.
Hezbollah Attacks Targeting Northern Israel: Hezbollah fired “Fadi-4” medium-range rockets targeting the Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv on October 1.
Iraq: Likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted a rocket attack targeting a US diplomatic facility near Baghdad International Airport on October 1.
Houthis: Houthi Spokesperson Yahya Sarea claimed that the Houthis launched one drone at Tel Aviv and four “Sammad 4” drones targeting unspecified sites in Eilat, Israel, on October 1, before Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel.
Terrorist Attack in Israel: Two unidentified individuals shot and killed eight civilians in Jaffa, south of Tel Aviv, on October 1.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: The IDF has advanced into southern Lebanon along two axes. Hezbollah engaged the IDF as it advanced, killing at least eight Israeli soldiers. The IDF called on civilians across southern Lebanon to evacuate immediately and move northward.
Iran: The recent Iranian missile attack on Israel appears to have been more effective at penetrating Israeli air defenses than the Iranian drone-missile attack in April 2024. This may indicate that Iran is learning how to optimize its attacks against Western and Israeli defenses.
Iran: Israel will reportedly conduct a “significant retaliation” against Iran in the coming days. Iranian military leaders threatened that they would respond by conducting an even greater attack on Israel.
Iran: Reuters reported on how deeply Israel has infiltrated the Iranian security establishment and Hezbollah. Israeli operations, including the killing of senior Axis of Resistance officials, has stoked mistrust and paranoia among Iranian and Hezbollah leaders.
Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias threatened to attack US forces if the United States supports an Israeli retaliation against Iran. Militia officials also criticized Jordan for purportedly helping Israel intercept Iranian ballistic missiles.
Iranian internal security: There has been a significant uptick in anti-regime militancy in southeastern Iran in recent days. This coincides with the two-year anniversary of “Blood Friday,” when Iranian security forces brutally suppressed protesters in southeastern Iran.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: The IDF continued advancing into southern Lebanon. The IDF reportedly estimates that it has killed over 100 Lebanese Hezbollah militants during its ground operation. The IDF also issued calls for further evacuations.
Lebanon: The IDF continued its air campaign targeting Lebanese Hezbollah capabilities, infrastructure, and leadership. The IDF conducted several strikes in Beirut specifically targeting the Hezbollah intelligence apparatus.
Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will lead Friday prayers in Tehran on October 4, during which he will speak publicly on the war against Israel. Khamenei very rarely leads Friday prayers and reserves the right for especially sensitive times for the Islamic Republic.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-3-2024

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: Israeli political leaders indicated that the IDF killed Hashem Safi ed Din—the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah—in an airstrike on Beirut.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem lauded the resilience of Hezbollah and vowed to continue and even expand attacks into northern Israel.
Lebanon: The IDF deployed a fourth division—the 146^th Reservist Division—to southwestern Lebanon as part of its expansion of ground operations against Lebanese Hezbollah.
Iran: US CIA Director William Burns said that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in around a week but does not appear to have yet made the decision to do so.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-8-2024

https://x.com/us_the_story/status/1836483034964443240

https://www.youtube.com/v/ZVw2sd7Vxj4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVw2sd7Vxj4

Dr. Jordan B. Peterson sits down with international bestselling author of the “Orphan X” series, Gregg Hurwitz. They discuss the manufactured polarity within the United States, how bad actors and foreign powers are manipulating American thought, the shocking number of data points most people agree on, and Gregg’s newest work, a short film called “Ask An Iranian: The Truth About the Middle East” which showcases true accounts of the terror administered by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

https://www.dailywire.com/episode/tbd-gregg-hurwitz-ad-free

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened senior Saudi officials, warning that the Axis of Resistance would attack Saudi energy assets and infrastructure if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack on Iran, according to anonymous Iranian officials speaking to Reuters.
Iran: Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee member Alaeddin Boroujerdi said on October 10 that Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in response to an Israeli strike on Iran.
Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah has likely lost under five percent of its original fighting force over the past year.
Lebanon: Israeli journalists reported on October 10 that the IDF has taken control of some border areas in southeastern Lebanon.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-10-2024

Key Takeaways:

Israeli Retaliation Against Iran: The United States deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system and US military personnel to operate the system to Israel on October 13 to bolster Israeli air defenses following the April 13 and October 1 Iranian attacks on Israel. US officials told NBC on October 12 that they believe Israel has “narrowed down” its targets for a retaliatory attack on Iran.
Hamas: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar negotiated with Iran over financial support for a larger-scale attack on Israel in 2021, underscoring the coordination between Hamas and the wider Axis of Resistance before the October 7 attacks.
Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: An unspecified IDF division began a new ground operation near Aita al Shaab and Ramyeh in southern Lebanon on October 13. Israeli forces entered a UNIFIL position in Ramyeh, southern Lebanon, after sustaining injuries in a Hezbollah attack close to the UNIFIL position on October 13. The IDF reported that Israeli forces had to come within a few meters of a UNIFIL position to evacuate the wounded soldiers.
Hezbollah Attacks into Israel: Hezbollah conducted a drone attack targeting an IDF training camp in Binyamina, south of Haifa, and injured at least 67 Israelis on October 13.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to seize terrain in several Lebanon towns along the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah fighters continued to engage Israeli forces in unsecured border areas.
Israeli Policy in Lebanon: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on October 15 that Israel would reject any ceasefire that would enable Hezbollah to reorganize and rearm. Netanyahu’s demand to prevent Hezbollah’s reorganization and rearmament are provisions that are in part enshrined in UN Resolution 1701. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is present in southern Lebanon to monitor the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 and to “take all necessary action” to prevent the area from being used for hostile activities, which would include Hezbollah’s extensive development of military infrastructure.
Israeli Retaliation Against Iran: Israeli media reported that Israel decided on the targets it could “potentially strike” in Iran on October 16. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi continued his diplomatic tour of Middle Eastern countries to persuade their leaders to bar Israel from using their airspace in Israel’s retaliation against Iran.
Iranian Nuclear Policy: Iranian Parliamentarian Ali Asghar Nakhaei Rad urged the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) to ask Khamenei to reconsider his 2003 fatwa banning nuclear weapons. Nakhaei Rad was among the thirty-nine Iranian parliamentarians who signed a letter to the SNSC calling for a revision of Iranian "defense doctrine" and for the SNSC to "issue permission and provide facilities for the production of nuclear weapons."
Post-war Plans in the Gaza Strip: US officials are considering improving and endorsing a UAE-proposed post-war plan for the Gaza Strip after the US presidential election. US officials are now reportedly considering this plan, having concluded that there is “no deal in sight” for a hostage release and ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-16-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Yahya Sinwar in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip on October 16. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to change Hamas’ maximalist negotiating position meaningfully.
Sinwar’s Succession: Mohammad Sinwar is the most likely replacement for Yahya Sinwar in the Gaza Strip, but he will likely split his military duties with other commanders. Hamas is unlikely to immediately publicly appoint a new political chief in the Gaza Strip, given the reality that Hamas' political organization is under extreme pressure in the Gaza Strip right now. The death of Yahya Sinwar and the transition to new commander(s) will have minimal impact on Hamas’ command and control structure, however, given the degraded state of Hamas’ military organization.
Iranian Diplomatic Efforts: Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Egypt on October 16, marking the first time an Iranian official has visited Egypt since 2014. Araghchi’s visit is likely part of ongoing Iranian-backed efforts to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
Yemen: The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted multiple precision airstrikes using B2 Spirit stealth bombers in unspecified locations in Houthi-controlled Yemen on October 16. The strikes targeted Houthi underground weapons storage facilities that contained “various advanced conventional weapons.”
Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: Israeli media reported on October 17 that Hezbollah fighters killed five 1st Infantry Brigade soldiers during clearing operations in southeastern Lebanon on October 16.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters killed an IDF brigade commander in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip.
Iran and Hamas: Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi met with senior Hamas leadership in Istanbul, Turkey, on October 19.
Weapons Smuggling on the Egypt-Israel Border: The IDF thwarted a weapons smuggling attempt from Egypt into Israel on October 19.
Ceasefire Talks: Israeli Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar traveled to Cairo, Egypt, to discuss renewing hostage negotiations with incoming Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Mahmoud Rashad on October 20.
Hezbollah Drone Strike Targeting Netanyahu: The Israeli security cabinet convened in Tel Aviv on October 20 after the Hezbollah attack on the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israeli Operations in Lebanon: An Israeli airstrike killed three Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers in a military vehicle on October 20 in southern Lebanon. The IDF said that the Lebanese soldiers were driving in an unmarked vehicle towards an area where Israeli forces were operating and the IDF decided to strike the truck. The IDF clarified that “the Lebanese army and the objectives of the Lebanese state are not a target as far as we are concerned.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-20-2024

Key Takeaways:

Israeli Air Campaign: A senior Israeli intelligence official told Iranian anti-regime media that Israel’s recent operations in Lebanon have disrupted Iran’s ability to provide funds to Hezbollah.
Hezbollah Operations in Lebanon: Hezbollah’s chief media official said that Hezbollah is attempting to capture Israeli soldiers. The Hezbollah official said that "after the war there will be indirect negotiations to recover our prisoners,” suggesting that Hezbollah wants to capture Israeli soldiers for future negotiations. Hezbollah’s chief media official also noted that Hezbollah had increased the pace of offensive and defensive operations against Israel.
Blinken’s Regional Visit: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on October 22.
Iran: Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi obliquely threatened Arab states hosting US forces on October 21, which is probably an attempt to pressure Arab states to discourage the United States from using its forces in the region to support an Israeli retaliation against Iran.
Iranian Intelligence Efforts in Israel: The Israeli Police arrested seven individuals in East Jerusalem on October 22 on suspicion of planning and supporting attacks for Iran.
Gaza Strip: Geolocated imagery posted on October 21 showed Israeli forces evacuating Palestinians from and distributing water in the area surrounding a former UNRWA medical clinic in northern Jabalia.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-22-2024

Key Takeaways:

Russo-Iranian Cooperation: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran’s intentions to increase ties with Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23. Pezeshkian emphasized the need for BRICS countries to pursue economic cooperation that undermine the US dollar, almost certainly to achieve Iran’s economic goal of mitigating international sanctions on the Iranian economy through its neighborhood policy.
Israeli Air Campaign in Lebanon: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the death of Hashem Safi ed Din—the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah—in an airstrike on Beirut on October 3. Hashem Safi ed Din’s confirmed death will impact Hezbollah’s political succession but will not further affect Hezbollah’s immediate tactical decisions. The IDF confirmed that it killed several other high level Hezbollah commanders in the October 4 strike in Beirut.
Israeli Ground Operation in Lebanon: An IDF armored brigade captured a large stock of high-end Hezbollah equipment, including night vision goggles and Kornet missiles, in southwestern Lebanon. Hezbollah fighters, if they had withdrawn from the area in an orderly fashion, would have presumably withdrawn with high-end weapons systems like Kornets and equipment like night vision goggles. This suggests that Hezbollah fighters—rather than seeking to delay Israeli forces in an organized fashion by slowly executing an orderly delay—instead fled their positions.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-23-2024

Isn't siding with Iran also siding with Russia?

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: Israeli media published a US-drafted ceasefire proposal to end the fighting in Lebanon. The success of the proposal depends fully on Hezbollah’s agreement and cooperation. The proposal does not explicitly require Hezbollah to withdraw from south of the Litani River.
Lebanon: Israel is seeking for the United States to guarantee its support for Israeli military action in Lebanon if the ceasefire fails. Senior Lebanese officials are expressing optimism publicly about the feasibility of a ceasefire.
Israel: The IDF will establish a new division to counter threats around the Israel-Jordan border. The establishment of this division comes amid IDF concerns about Iran trying to smuggle weapons into Israel and the West Bank via Jordan.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-31-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iran will reportedly retaliate for the recent IDF strikes across Iran. Iran would be responding to the significant damage that the IDF inflicted upon Iranian air defenses and missile production facilities.
Iraq: Iran may retaliate by ordering its Iraqi militias to fire a large volume of drones and missiles at Israel. That Iran is considering this option highlights the extent to which Iran has expanded its military and political influence in Iraq.
Lebanon: The IDF engaged Lebanese Hezbollah while advancing around the tactically significant town of Khiam in southeastern Lebanon. The town is on high ground from which Hezbollah could fire into Israel and observe the IDF and other targets in the area.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation against Israel: The Iranian regime is continuing to signal that it will respond to the recent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes into Iran on October 25, although the regime does not appear to have decided how it will respond.
US Posture in the Middle East: The United States military is increasing its presence in the Middle East ahead of the departure of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group from the region in the next few months.
Gaza Strip: The IDF deployed the 900th Infantry Brigade to Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip, on November 2. This brigade, which specializes in operations against “guerilla” cells in the West Bank’s urban environments, would be well-suited to operations in Jabalia’s urban environment, where Hamas has been reduced to operating in small, independent guerilla cells.
Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: The IDF is sending small units far ahead of the main Israeli force operating in Lebanon. That the IDF has the confidence to operate regular units in this way is a reflection is Hezbollah’s relatively ineffective defense in these areas.
Israeli Raids in Lebanon: Israeli naval special operations forces captured a senior member of Hezbollah’s naval forces in Batroun, central Lebanon, according to an unspecified Israeli official.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

West Bank: The Israeli Defense Minister emphasized that Iran is “pouring everything [it] can” into the West Bank, indicating that Iran will very likely attempt to pursue a different strategy when rebuilding Hamas to fight Israel again.
Syria: The IDF captured a Syrian man who was collecting intelligence on Israeli border arrangements during a ground raid in southern Syria. This Iranian-led intelligence effort is likely an attempt to gather information on Israeli border security that Iranian-backed militias could use to undertake small-scale infiltrations into the Golan Heights.
Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: The Israeli prime minister stated that Israel needs to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River “with or without an agreement” to achieve Israel's stated war aims, which is to return residents of northern Israel to their homes under safe conditions. Current Israeli operations in southern Lebanon are unlikely to achieve these war aims, though it does not follow that future Israeli operations will fail to achieve the Israeli objectives
Iranian Retaliation against Israel: UK-based Saudi outlet Elaph reported that Israel warned the Iraqi government that if Iranian-backed Iraqi militias continue to attack Israel from Iraqi territory, Israel may strike predetermined targets in Iraq.
US Diplomatic Efforts: The United States warned Iran against launching another attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s strikes into Iran on October 25 because the United States will not be able to restrain Israel’s response.
US Posture in the Middle East: US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that B-52 strategic bombers arrived in the Middle East on November 3. US CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurilla met with IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi in Israel between November 2 and November 3.
Saudi Arabia: The Islamic Resistance in the Land of the Two Holy Mosques, an Iranian-backed militia claiming to operate in Saudi Arabia, claimed its second attack since announcing its existence.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-3-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran-Israel conflict: Iran reportedly warned some Arab countries that it will conduct a complex attack in retaliation for the recent IDF strikes on Iran. Tehran reportedly plans to use drones and missiles, some of which will have heavier payloads than what Iran has previously fired at Israel. The upcoming attack will reportedly include the IRGC and conventional Iranian military.
Gaza Strip: Hamas and Fatah officials met in Cairo to discuss post-war governance in the Gaza Strip and agreed to form an administrative committee to manage borders and other civil affairs. Hamas seeks to establish an intra-Palestinian government that Hamas can ultimately control as an alternative to a UAE plan that would exclude Hamas from post-war governance in the strip.
Iran: A female Iranian student removed some of her clothing in protest after being reportedly harassed and assaulted by regime security forces. She has rapidly become an online symbol of the Iranian protest movement standing against regime oppression and efforts to enforce behavioral standards on the Iranian population.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-4-2024

Key Takeaways:

Post-War Control in the Gaza Strip: Fatah is attempting to extend its control over the Gaza Strip after the October 7 War, but Fatah’s lack of pro-Fatah Palestinian Authority (PA)-affiliated military forces in the Gaza Strip will make this extremely difficult. Fatah likely views the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ weakened military position as an opportunity to confront Hamas over Hamas efforts to maintain control in the Gaza Strip.
Israeli Military Operations in the Gaza Strip: Israeli forces are conducting a major clearing operation across the northern Gaza Strip to disrupt militia reconstitution efforts. Palestinian militia elements could continue attacks in Jabalia after the IDF withdrew there in May 2024, though it was unclear how effective the Hamas military organization in Jabalia would continue to function. Hamas’ military wing has probably attempted to rebuild itself where possible in Jabalia since May 2024. It is unclear how successful these efforts would have been, however, given Hamas’ inability to resupply its fighters and attrition during Israeli operations in May.
Iraqi Militias and Ballistic Missiles: The commander of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada boasted about Iranian-backed Iraqi militia ballistic missile capabilities on November 5, likely to deter potential Israeli strikes in Iraq. The Iranian-backed Iraqi groups probably also seek to message their strength to gain more influence within the Axis of Resistance amid the severe weakening of the Axis’ previous crown jewel, Hezbollah. The Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have deepened collaboration with the Houthis since October 7, 2023, which could give Iraqi militias access to the knowledge necessary to do rudimentary ballistic missile production.
Russia Launches Iranian Satellites: Russia launched the Iranian Kowsar high-resolution sensing satellite and Hodhod communications satellite into orbit using a Russian Soyuz rocket on November 5, which Iran could use to collect imagery on US and Israeli assets and bases in the region. Omid Faza’s founder, Hossein Shahrabi Farahani, who previously headed US-sanctioned Iran Electronics Industries (IEI) Space Group, created the company in 2018 with several unspecified Amir Kabir University students.
Israeli Defense Minister Fired: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on November 5. Netanyahu explained his decision by citing a "crisis of trust” that had emerged between him and Gallant.
Hamas Price Gouging Aid in the Gaza Strip: Gazans protested price gouging of humanitarian aid and goods in Deir al Balah, central Gaza Strip, on November 4 and 5. It is notable that Palestinian civilians are protesting in Deir al Balah given that it remains a Hamas stronghold.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-5-2024

Thank you, Democrats, for your hard work in electing President Trump!

Key Takeaways:

Iranian-backed Iraqi Militias: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba threatened to target US bases in Iraq and Syria on November 4, likely to compel the US to prevent potential Israeli strikes in Iraq. The Biden Administration has conveyed to the Iraqi government that the United States will not be able to prevent an Israeli strike in Iraq if Iran attacks Israel from Iraqi territory.
Iran in Iraq: The IRGC is reportedly transferring ballistic missiles and drones and planning a joint attack with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias against Israel, further suggesting Iran will retaliate for Israel’s October 25 strikes in Iran from Iraqi territory.
Hezbollah: Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem claimed that Hezbollah would outlast Israel in a “war of attrition” in a speech on November 6. Qassem did not tie a Lebanon ceasefire to Israeli actions in the Gaza Strip, a notable shift from Nasrallah’s position before the ground operation.
Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said on November 6 that the IDF will prepare plans to expand military operations in Lebanon.
Anti-Regime Militancy in Iran: Iranian media claimed that Iran and Pakistan conducted a joint airstrike attack against Jaish al Adl, a Baloch, Salafi-jihadi militia on November 5.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

Hezbollah Operations in Lebanon: Hezbollah executed a prepared but limited defense of Khiam in southeastern Lebanon against the IDF from October 28 to 31. The group said that it prevented an Israeli force from seizing and controlling terrain in Khiam by executing a “fire defense,“ which likely refers to a prepared but limited defense that involved pre-registering targets for indirect fire while committing only a small amount of infantry.
Iranian Retaliation Against Israel: Recent statements by senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders suggest that the IRGC may conduct a direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory in response to the October 25 Israeli strike targeting Iran. Iran may conduct a smaller-scale direct attack on Israel than it did in April and October 2024 to preserve its diminishing long-range missile stockpile.
Iran: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei described the features a future supreme leader should embody during his first public meeting with the Assembly of Experts on November 7.
Houthi Response to US Election: Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi stated on November 7 that the reelection of former US President Donald Trump does not impact the Houthis’ campaign against shipping or Israel. Abdulmalik said that Houthi fighters will continue to attack merchant vessels, US and Royal (UK) Navy vessels transiting through the Red Sea, and Israel itself.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-7-2024

Anti-Semitism explodes in Amsterdam, Israel dispatches airplanes to rescue citizens!

Mobs hunt down Israelis visiting for soccer match!

In what already is being called a European pogram or Kristallnacht II, antisemitism has exploded in Amsterdam and Israeli officials promptly announced a rescue plan including airplanes being dispatched to retrieve endangered citizens.

A report at United With Israel confirmed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced overnight "he was dispatching two rescue planes to Amsterdam following a 'very violent incident against Israeli citizens.'"

A statement from his office confirmed, "The harsh pictures of the assault on our citizens in Amsterdam will not be overlooked. Prime Minister Netanyahu views the horrifying incident with utmost gravity and demands that the Dutch government and security forces take vigorous and swift action against the rioters, and ensure the safety of our citizens."

https://www.wnd.com/2024/11/antisemitism-explodes-in-amsterdam-israel-dispatches-airplanes-to-rescue-citizens/

This is what unlimited immigration gets you!

Key Takeaways:

Israeli War Aims in Lebanon: Newly-appointed Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reaffirmed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will continue its operation in Lebanon until it accomplishes its mission. Katz said that Israel would not agree to any ceasefire agreement that does not “guarantee Israel’s right to enforce and prevent terrorism on its own.” Israel’s currently limited operation in frontline border towns of southern Lebanon will not alone accomplish Katz’s vision.
Iran-Russia Relations: Iran and Russia have taken the first steps to create a banking network that circumvents international sanctions. The creation of this network and its emphasis on reducing dependence on the US dollar is part of a broader Iranian effort to mitigate sanctions and bolster the Iranian economy by building relations with regional and international states.
Iran and Russia in the Caucasus: Growing Russo-Iranian tensions in the Caucasus represent fissures in the bilateral relationship, but both states will likely attempt to prevent the Caucasus issue from derailing wider Iranian or Russian policy objectives. The disagreements between the two countries over the Caucasus is unlikely to derail broader Iranian and Russian efforts to deepen bilateral ties. Iran would certainly prioritize sanctions mitigation through a stronger Russo-Iranian relationship over secondary policy objectives like the Zangezur Corridor. Iran views sanctions mitigation as a way to enhance regime security by improving its economy.
Hezbollah Attack Campaign in Israel: A likely Hezbollah drone struck a kindergarten in the Haifa suburb of Nesher on November 12. The drone struck outside the kindergarten while the children were in a bomb shelter and did not cause casualties. One-way-attack drones are much more accurate than rockets. Drones can still suffer failures and miss their intended targets as a result of electronic warfare or a partial interception.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-12-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Retaliation Against Israel: The damage caused by Israel’s October 25 strike targeting Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities combined with Iran’s decreased missile stockpile makes another Iranian large-scale ballistic missile attack targeting Israel unlikely. Iran could use a smaller number of long-range systems combined with a larger number of shorter-range systems fired from Iraq, however.
Lebanon Ceasefire Talks: US and Israeli officials are in the "final stages” of drafting language for a ceasefire proposal to end the fighting in Lebanon, according to unspecified US and Israeli officials. Israel will likely need to compel Hezbollah to agree to the US-Israeli proposal.
Hezbollah’s Ceasefire Considerations: Hezbollah may outright reject Israel’s terms or refuse to join negotiations altogether. Hezbollah’s ceasefire demands are directly at odds with Israel’s insistence that the IDF retains the ability to act militarily in Lebanon to thwart Hezbollah threats. Hezbollah may choose to accept Israel’s ceasefire terms to preserve its forces north of the Litani River, given the damage Hezbollah has suffered throughout Lebanon since the Israeli campaign began.
Russia in the Middle East: Russia refused to block the transit of Iranian supplies to Hezbollah via Syria. The Russian Presidential Special Envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, told Russian state news outlet RIA Novosti on November 13 that Russia could not guarantee that it would block the transit of Iranian materiel to Hezbollah through Syria.
Ceasefire-Hostage Negotiations in the Gaza Strip: Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) published a video of an Israeli hostage giving coerced testimony to degrade Israeli public support for IDF operations in the Gaza Strip. The video is almost certainly timed to exploit Israeli domestic discontent after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on November 5 for Gallant’s support of a ceasefire with Hamas.
Syria: An IDF spokesperson said that Israel is digging berms along the demilitarized zone between the Golan Heights and Syria to protect Israel against Iranian-backed infiltration attempts from Syria. Iranian-backed groups have previously shown interest in conducting ground attacks into Israel, and a recent Israeli raid captured a Syrian man who had been collecting intelligence on Israeli border security along the Israeli-Syrian border.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Nuclear Program: Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons research program in the past year. This assessment is based on publicly reported US and Israeli intelligence about Iranian research activity at the Parchin Military Complex outside Tehran in recent months. US and Israeli intelligence began detecting suspicious research activity, including computer modeling, metallurgy, and explosive research, at the Parchin Military Complex earlier in 2024.
Ceasefire in Lebanon: The Lebanese government is considering a US-proposed ceasefire draft to end Hezbollah’s war with Israel. The Lebanese parliamentary speaker expressed reservations about the current proposal.
Senior Iranian Official in Lebanon: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s senior security adviser Ali Larijani met with senior Lebanese officials in Beirut on November 15 to discuss a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The head of airport security at Rafic Hariri International Airport reportedly detained the Iranian Embassy in Beirut’s security team while it was escorting Larijani.
Israeli Ground Operations in Lebanon: Israeli forces have advanced to the town of Chama, approximately five kilometers into southwestern Lebanon, as of November 15.
Supreme Leader Succession: Esfahan interim Friday Prayer Leader and member of the Iranian Assembly of Experts, Seyyed Abolhasan Mahdavi, stated that the Assembly has confidentially identified and prioritized three candidates for leadership succession.
Israel Drafts Ultra-Orthodox: Israeli Defense Minister Israeli Katz decided that the IDF will soon begin issuing conscription orders to Israeli ultra-Orthodox.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-15-2024

Key Takeaways:

Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah is trying to remove a clause in a US-proposed ceasefire agreement that allows Israel to strike Hezbollah targets if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire. Removing these clauses would enable Hezbollah to gradually re-arm and re-entrench in southern Lebanon.
Lebanon: Documents seized by the IDF in the Gaza Strip highlight Iranian efforts to promote interoperability between Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah. The documents depict Iran-Hamas discussions to send thousands of Hamas fighters to Lebanon to integrate into Hezbollah SOF units. These units are trained to conduct ground attacks into Israel.
Iran: The United States and E3 submitted a censure resolution against Iran to the IAEA Board of Governors in response to Iran's refusal to cooperate fully with the IAEA. Iran is trying to prevent the censure resolution from passing by threatening unspecified retaliation.
Iraq: The Iraqi federal government is trying to prevent Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacks on Israel in order to prevent Israeli strikes on Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi attacks on Israel increased by almost 150 percent between September and October 2024.
Gaza Strip: Israel is exploring options to improve the distribution of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip. These considerations come amid an uptick in armed Palestinian gangs interdicting aid convoys and looting them.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-20-2024

The Houthis now pose a strategic threat with global implications for the United States and its allies. The United States and its allies have failed to prevent Iran from strengthening the Houthis’ military capabilities since 2015. The Houthis have grown from a small, militia in Yemen’s northern mountains into a major strategic threat with ties to multiple US adversaries. The US has sought to “avoid escalation” in response to dramatic Houthi escalations since October 2023 by taking a series of reactive half-measures that have failed to accomplish decisive effects or materially degrade Houthi military capabilities. The Houthis are undeterred and have collected significant insight into the operation of US defenses against their attack systems of all varieties. The Houthis will almost certainly exploit this insight to improve the efficacy of their attacks and provide it to other US adversaries. Continued Houthi operations in the Middle East in the meantime will continue to deflect US efforts to prioritize the Indo-Pacific, as they have already done for over a year.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/cost-inaction-yemen

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment. Iran is responding to the IAEA Board of Governors passing a censure resolution against Iran.
Iran: A senior Iranian official threatened that Iran would withdraw from the NPT if the JCPOA signatories trigger snapback sanctions against Iran. The IAEA Board of Governors censure resolution could set conditions for the reimposition of international sanctions on Iran.
Israel: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz approved the appointment of a new IDF Ground Forces commander. The new commander, Brigadier General Nadav Lotan, previously commanded the IDF 162^nd Division.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-22-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Nuclear Program: Iranian media reported that Iran is activating 5,000 centrifuges in response to the censure resolution that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed on November 21.
Iranian Nuclear Weaponization: Iranian hardliners are continuing to lobby Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to revoke his fatwa that prohibits the production and use of nuclear weapons to restore deterrence against Iran’s “enemies.” The Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman threatened to withdraw from the nuclear weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Lebanon Ceasefire: Iran has reportedly intervened in Lebanon ceasefire negotiations to ensure any agreement aligns with Iran’s objective to rebuild Hezbollah after the current Israeli campaign. Iran’s intervention aims to secure Hezbollah‘s position and capabilities in Lebanon by ensuring that Iran can rebuild the group after the war, according to regional media. This report is consistent with recent Iranian activity in Lebanon and CTP-ISW's assessment of Iranian intentions.
US-Israel Discussions: US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and CENTCOM Commander General Michael Kurilla spoke with senior Israeli officials about Israeli military operations and objectives in Lebanon on November 23. Kurilla held a situational assessment with IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi at the IDF Northern Command Headquarters in Safed, northern Israel, on November 23.
Hezbollah Capabilities: Unspecified Israeli defense officials cited by The New York Times reported that Hezbollah has manufactured copies of Israeli Spike anti-tank missiles that it had captured in previous wars. Hezbollah has developed its own Almas manufacturing capabilities since 2006, which would enable it to rebuild its Almas stockpiles after the war with greater ease than if it could only acquire new Almas stocks from Iran via Iraq and Syria.
Hamas Exploits Israeli Hostages: Hamas blamed Israeli airstrikes for the death of a female hostage in the Gaza Strip, likely to degrade Israeli domestic support for IDF operations in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is also likely setting information conditions to blame Israeli operations in the northern Gaza Strip for the deaths of other hostages there. Hamas claimed that Israeli operations in the northern Gaza Strip threatened another hostage in the area.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: A top adviser to the Iranian supreme leader discussed Lebanon and ceasefire negotiations, nuclear policy, and a potential Iranian response to Israel’s October 25 strike. Larijani stated that Iran will not “take any steps” to address the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) concerns about Iran’s nuclear program in the recent IAEA censure resolution if there is no compromise with the IAEA.
Jordan: An unknown gunman fired on a Jordanian police patrol near the Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan, on November 23.
West Bank: Several Israeli settlers attempted to attack a senior IDF commander in Hebron, in the West Bank, on November 22.
Israeli Reservists: Israeli media reported on November 24 that the Israeli government is planning to extend reserve duty for 320,000 IDF reservists until March 2025.
Israeli Murdered in the UAE: The UAE Interior Ministry arrested three unspecified individuals for the murder of Israeli-Moldovan Rabbi Zvi Kogan in the UAE. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel will use “all means necessary...to the fullest extent of the law" to deal with the individuals responsible for Kogan’s murder.
Hezbollah Operations: Lebanese Hezbollah likely fired large numbers of rockets at Israel to pressure the Israeli government during ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Hezbollah fired about 250 rockets at civilian and military targets in Israel in seven hours on November 24, according to IDF reports. Hezbollah is likely attempting to demonstrate to the Israeli government and people that continuing the IDF’s military operations will not create entirely safe conditions to return northern Israelis to their homes and that a ceasefire deal is the only viable way to accomplish Israeli war aims. One of Israel’s stated war aims is to return Israeli civilians to their homes in the north.
Houthi-Russia Cooperation: Russia reportedly recruited hundreds of Yemeni nationals to fight in the Russian military amid growing cooperation between Russia, Iran, and the Iran-backed Houthi movement.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

Ceasefire in Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon approved a ceasefire to end the war in Lebanon on November 26. This ceasefire and its terms are tantamount to a Hezbollah defeat. Hezbollah has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims. Israel has accomplished its war aim through two months of military operations in Lebanon and this ceasefire. Hezbollah claimed incorrectly that it defeated Israel.
Shortcomings of the Ceasefire: The ceasefire contains several elements that will prove difficult to implement. The decision to rely on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN observers in Lebanon to respectively secure southern Lebanon and monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement makes no serious changes to the same system outlined by UNSC Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War. The difficulties in implementing this deal mean that Hezbollah and Iran can recover from this setback if the United States and Israel fail to prevent Hezbollah and Iran from doing so.
Israeli Air Campaign in Lebanon: The IDF struck approximately 180 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon since CTP-ISW's last data cut-off on November 25 marking its most intense day of airstrikes on Beirut since September 2024.
Iranian Use of Pharmaceutical-based Agents: Iran is actively violating the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and continues to advance its ability to develop and deploy its chemical weapons capabilities both inside and outside of Iran.
Israeli Ground Campaign in Lebanon: Israeli light infantry advanced to the Litani River near Deir Mimas and Arnoun, southeastern Lebanon, on November 26. The IDF elements also operated about 10km from Israeli territory in Wadi Saluki, making this advance the deepest penetration into Lebanon since Israeli forces began operations in early October 2024.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

Syria: Syrian opposition forces seized Aleppo City and advanced toward Hama City. Pro-Syrian regime forces have failed to mount an effective defense against the opposition offensive.
The Turkish-backed SNA launched a separate offensive into Syrian regime-held territory. The SNA captured a military airport from the joint control of the SAA and SDF.
The opposition offensive in northeastern Syria may be inspiring anti-regime activity in other parts of the country, particularly restive Daraa and Suwayda provinces.
The Syrian regime may struggle to rally the same support from the Axis of Resistance and Russia that they previously provided, which will impede pro-regime counteroffensives.
Gaza Strip: A Hamas delegation traveled to Cairo for further ceasefire-hostage negotiations and has indicated that it will drop its demand for the IDF to withdraw from parts of the Gaza Strip.
Hamas published a video of an American-Israeli hostage giving what appears to be a coerced testimony in order to pressure the United States and Israel to support a ceasefire.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-30-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian-backed Support to Syria: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have reportedly deployed to northern Syria to help defend the Bashar al Assad regime against Syrian opposition forces.
Hezbollah Support to Syria: It is not clear that Hezbollah can currently support a deployment of this size, given postwar commitments to reconstitute its forces. Hezbollah is regenerating and reorganizing its forces after a nearly two-month Israeli campaign in southern Lebanon that has severely degraded its command-and-control networks, communications, and weapons stockpiles. Regeneration and reorganization would need to occur before any forces can be deployed as units. It is possible, however, that Hezbollah could choose to deploy individuals to Syria to advise regime forces.
Iranian Diplomatic Responses: Iran is coordinating with Syria and Russia to counter the rebel offensive in Syria. Iran and Turkey continue to hold different desired political goals in Syria, which could cause increased friction as the Syrian opposition offensive continues.
Syrian Opposition Operations: Syrian opposition forces appear to be slowing their advance into regime-controlled areas of northwest Syria after encountering Syrian Arab Army (SAA) defensive lines north of Hama City. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) is similarly slowing its advance after accomplishing its main goal of seizing Tel Rifat, north of Aleppo, on December 1.
US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces: A local Syrian source suggested that the SDF may launch an offensive to seize Syrian regime-controlled territory in Deir ez Zor Province. The Deir ez Zor Military Council—an Arab-majority militia within the SDF—reportedly mobilized locals from seven villages on the left bank of the Euphrates River. These seven villages are the only areas east of the Euphrates that the regime controls, making it a strategic holding for the regime and its allies.
Lebanon Ceasefire: The United States and France reportedly warned Israel that it is violating the terms of the ceasefire, according to Israeli media. The IDF has conducted numerous strikes into Lebanese territory since the ceasefire went into effect. Hezbollah fired two rockets at an IDF border position as a “warning” on December 2 in response to what Hezbollah described as Israeli ceasefire violations.
Gaza Strip Ceasefire: Senior IDF officials have recommended that Israel propose a temporary ceasefire-hostage deal in response to Hamas’ perceived willingness to concede on some of its maximalist ceasefire demands.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

Hama Campaign: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-aligned opposition groups are likely prioritizing the capture of Hama City. The main effort bypassed key regime defensive positions north of the city and proceeded to cut ground lines of communication (GLOCs) traveling into the city from the east and southeast, thus isolating the city from the east. Fateh Mubin’s supporting effort captured key GLOCs connecting Hama City to eastern Syria likely in order to interdict resupply and reinforcements from the east.
Eastern Syria: US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted several self-defense airstrikes targeting weapons systems in Deir ez Zor Province, Syria, on December 3.
Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 4 that it recovered the body of an Israeli hostage from an unspecified location in the Gaza Strip.
Hezbollah and Syria: Lebanese Hezbollah will likely try to reconstitute its forces despite significant Israeli degradation to the organization. Hezbollah is likely unable to send its newly recruited fighters to Syria due to the severe losses it suffered in Lebanon and the requirements on the group to train its new fighters.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-4-2024

Key Takeaways:

Hama City-Homs City Axis: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-aligned opposition groups have begun a campaign to capture Homs after capturing Hama City on December 5. Syrian opposition groups are using negotiated settlements with localities to rapidly seize territory without fighting.
State of Regime Forces: Opposition groups may also advance rapidly towards Homs due to the rapid collapse of regime forces. Regime forces appear to be collapsing between Hama City and Homs City. The regime similarly failed to set up strong defensive lines until well into Hama Governorate after opposition forces seized Aleppo on November 30.
Aleppo: HTS is establishing alternative political and security institutions in Aleppo City, consolidating control and support of the local population and former regime elements.
HTS Diplomacy: HTS is attempting to use diplomacy to prevent Iranian-backed Iraqi militias from bolstering Syrian regime forces after regime forces retreated south. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al Jolani asked Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani on December 5 to prevent the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) from intervening in the Syrian conflict.
Lebanese Hezbollah: Secretary General Naim Qassem said on December 5 that Hezbollah is committed to “sheltering and rebuilding” in Lebanon and abiding by the ceasefire deal with Israel.
Gaza Ceasefire-Hostage Negotiations: Egypt presented an Israeli-proposed ceasefire-hostage deal to Hamas on December 2. Israel desires to capitalize on Hamas’ ”willingness to be flexible” on implementing a partial deal due to the ceasefire in Lebanon, former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death, and the incoming Trump Presidency, according to two Israeli officials speaking to Axios.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

Syrian opposition forces toppled the Bashar al Assad regime after only 11 days of fighting. HTS under Julani is beginning to consolidate power in Damascus and across formerly regime-controlled territory.
HTS-affiliated forces appear to be taking control of the western bank of Deir ez Zor Province, which the SDF had seized from the Syrian regime. The SDF clashed with the Turkish-backed SNA east of Aleppo City.
The IDF deployed units to establish a buffer zone in Syria along the Golan Heights. The IDF also conducted airstrikes targeting ammunition depots and advanced weapons to prevent opposition forces from acquiring those materials.
The United States conducted airstrikes against over 75 ISIS targets in central Syria. US leaders emphasized that they would prevent ISIS from reconstituting and exploiting the instability in Syria amid the collapse of the Syrian regime.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-8-2024

https://www.youtube.com/v/kmlrt_6MwXY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmlrt_6MwXY

ISIS now owns Syria and Democrats along with the Legacy Media insist that is a good thing!

How they do not say!

Key Takeaways:

Syrian Transitional Government Formation: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is establishing a transitional government and reconciling with former Syrian regime and Syrian Arab Army (SAA) members. HTS likely attempting to improve its image among the Syrian people and international community by framing itself as an organization that is devoted to building a pluralist Syrian state.
Northeastern Syria: The Kurdish-controlled, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) may face increased challenges governing Arab areas in northeastern Syria due to the emergence of the HTS-led transitional government as a viable alternative to the SDF. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) is also attacking the SDF as the SDF contends with internal dissent.
Israel in Syria: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to establish a buffer zone in Syria along the Golan Heights on December 9. The IDF Air Force continued conducting airstrikes targeting former SAA and Lebanese Hezbollah sites in Syria on December 9.
Iraq and Iran in Syria: The fall of the Assad regime has exposed fissures between Iran and Iraq. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi was “surprised” during his visit to Baghdad on December 6 that the Iraqi federal government refused to send forces to Syria to defend the Assad regime.
Iranian Syria Policy: Iran is attempting to reframe its role in the Syrian Civil War to reestablish influence within the new Syrian government.
Iranian Reactions to Assad’s Collapse: Members of Iran’s armed forces and Iranian policymakers are increasingly disillusioned with Iran’s handling of the collapse of the Assad Regime.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-9-2024

Key Takeaways:

Government Consolidation in Syria: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani is attempting to consolidate HTS’s political and military control in a post-Assad Syrian government. Jolani and HTS may find it difficult to subordinate other Syrian groups to the control of the HTS-controlled interim government. Some of these groups have previously fought against Jolani’s organization and may be reticent to see Jolani expand his influence.
Sectarianism in Syria: More extremist and sectarian groups within the HTS coalition may not adhere to HTS’s vow to respect Syria’s religious and sectarian minorities, which would likely trigger sectarian violence in Syria. Reported sectarian incidents and revenge killings—though the incidents remain isolated and relatively independent of each other at this time—create opportunities for extreme and sectarian groups to incite further religious- or sectarian-based violence to destabilize a future Syrian government.
Israel in Syria: An anonymous senior Israeli official told an Israeli journalist that the height of the IDF campaign on the Syrian Front is over.
Eastern Syria: The HTS-led operations room seized full control of Deir ez Zor City from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) on December 10. Arab forces within the SDF are also defecting to the HTS-led transitional government in Damascus as HTS-led forces seize more ground on the right bank of the Euphrates. HTS has not yet assisted Arab defectors from the SDF with additional forces. Opposition forces across Syria—except the SNA-SDF fighting—have so far attempted to resolve their issues without resorting to fighting.
Iranian Response to Syria: The Iranian supreme leader gave a speech in which he claimed that Syria was “occupied” by opposition forces. The supreme leader compared Syria today to Iraq in the 2003-2011 period and said that Syrian youth would free Syrian just like Iranian-backed Iraqi militias “freed” Iraq from the United States.
Iran-Turkey: Khamenei criticized the "obvious role" that “a neighboring government”—almost certainly a reference to Turkey—played in the developments in Syria.
Iranian Intelligence Operations in Israel: Four unspecified Israeli security sources told Reuters on December 11 that Iran has intensified its effort to recruit Israelis susceptible to recruitment over the past two years.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-11-2024

Key Takeaways:

Syria: HTS is trying to retain control over the forces that it leads to maintain its moderate image and prevent sectarian conflict. HTS likely recognizes the risk of revenge killings and sectarian violence, which could destabilize Syria further.
Syria: The US-backed SDF is facing intense external and internal pressure. The SDF did, however, reach a four-day ceasefire agreement with the Turkish-backed SNA around Manbij in northern Syria.
Syria: The HTS-led transitional government is trying to portray itself as the legitimate Syrian state by publicizing its engagement with foreign actors. No foreign countries have yet recognized the transitional government as the legitimate state, however.
Iran: The E3 sent a letter to the UN Security Council, threatening to impose “snapback” sanctions on Iran. The E3 is responding to the dramatic expansion of the Iranian nuclear program and Iranian non-cooperation with the IAEA.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-12-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Reactions to Syria: The Iranian regime is still coming to terms with the fall of the Assad regime and reflecting on its former Syria policy.
Blinken in the Middle East: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the situation in Syria with senior Turkish and Iraqi officials on December 12 and 13. Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on December 12 and 13, respectively, to try to persuade Turkey “not to press [its] advantage” against the Kurdish-controlled, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.
Syrian Democratic Forces: The SDF is facing two perceived existential threats in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime, which almost certainly caused the SDF to deprioritize the counter-ISIS mission. SDF commander General Mazloum Abdi announced that the SDF plans to negotiate its role in a future Syrian government, likely to prevent further unrest within Arab populations and militias under the SDF.
Religious and Sectarian Tension in Syria: Reports of Sunni Muslims harassing and threatening minority religious and sectarian groups in Syria continue to gain traction in the information space, which could create opportunities for extreme groups to incite further religious- or sectarian-based violence. CTP-ISW will continue to report these indicators of any interfaith or sectarian violence given the serious nature of these crimes and the risk that revenge, sectarian, and interfaith killings and harassment could spark larger-scale cycles of violence.
Israel in Syria: The IDF continued to operate in the Israel-Syria disengagement zone and on the Israel-Syria border on December 13. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on December 13 that he ordered the IDF to prepare to stay on Syrian Mt. Hermon during the coming months.
Russia in Syria: Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia's longer-term military presence in the country. The status of Russia's helicopter base at Qamishli in northeastern Syria remains unclear, however.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-13-2024

Key Takeaways:

Russia in Syria: Russia’s withdrawal from bases in northern Syria and its loss of influence in Syria will likely expose the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to continued Turkish attacks in northern Syria. Russia had previously opposed several prior Turkish attempts to capture SDF-controlled areas and prevented Turkish operations. The loss of Russia’s physical presence and influence in northern Syria means that the primary barrier against a Turkish or Turkish-backed operation to seize even more SDF-controlled areas—or a Turkish attempt to destroy the SDF outright—no longer exists.
Syrian Democratic Forces: Turkey will likely continue to back the SNA’s ground operation against the SDF to destroy the SDF. The SDF’s fight against Turkey and its proxies will render it unable to support US policy objectives in Syria. The SDF cannot conduct offensive operations against ISIS while contending with the threat from Turkey and its allies in Syria. It is unclear if the SDF would be able to secure key facilities like al Hol camp if it faces a severe threat from Turkish-backed forces to Kurdish civilian areas.
Expanding HTS Control in Syria: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) continues to consolidate security control over disparate armed groups in Syria.
US Carrier Deployment: US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group arrived in the Middle East on December 14. CENTCOM stated that the strike group moved into CENTCOM’s area of responsibility to ensure regional stability and security, but did not specify the exact location of the strike group.
Israel in Syria: Israeli military officials approved plans for operations further into Syria but have not implemented them. Israeli forces continued to operate in villages in Quneitra and Daraa provinces on December 15.
Iraqi Reactions to Syria: Iranian-backed Badr Organization Secretary General Hadi al Ameri stated on December 12 that “what happened in Syria is a stain of shame on the foreheads of the Turks.” The Iraqi Army and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are continuing to bolster security along the Iraq-Syria Border.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-15-2024

Key Takeaways:

HTS and the Syrian Security Sector: The HTS-controlled interim government is continuing to reconcile with former members of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).
Syrian Transition: HTS has not suggested it will implement key elements of UNSCR 2254 and is attempting to change the resolution’s guidance to account for Syria’s “new reality.” HTS leader Ahmad Shara (Jolani) noted on December 16 that Syria is not ready for elections, and the interim government has so far failed to outline any process for generating a constitution. HTS-selected officials within the transitional government would presumably be relied upon to establish a method to write a constitution, including the selection of various powerbrokers across the country and in different minority groups to attend negotiations.
Northern Syria: A four-day ceasefire between the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Manbij area expired without an extension on December 16. The Turkish-backed SNA is reportedly seizing private and government property in Manbij. Local media reported that at least some of these seizures target Kurds, “under the pretext of [the Kurds] belonging to the SDF.
Syrian Democratic Forces: Arab elements continue to defect from the Syrian Democratic Forces. The head of internal security for the al Busayrah and Dhiban region in SDF-controlled Deir ez Zor Province announced he and “hundreds” of his fighters would join the HTS-led Military Operations Department.
Israel in Syria: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to operate in southern Syrian towns near the Jordanian border on December 16.
Israel’s October 25 Strike on Iran: Israel’s large-scale aerial attack on Iranian missile production sites on October 25 significantly damaged Iran's missile production capability, including its ability to export Iranian-made missiles to partners like Russia and the Houthis.
ISIS: US Central Command (CENTCOM) is continuing to conduct airstrikes in previously regime-held areas to disrupt ISIS operations.
Iranian Information Space: Some Iranian media outlets appear to be engaged in an information campaign to stoke sectarian tensions and promote a hardline approach toward the new HTS-led interim government.
Russia-HTS Negotiations: Russia continues to negotiate with the interim Syrian government to maintain its military presence at the Hmeimim Air Base and Port of Tartus in Syria, but Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov's recent appeals to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) suggest that talks may have hit a snag.
Russia in Syria: Russia continues to withdraw elements of its force grouping in Syria to the western coast amid limited reports that Moscow plans to fully withdraw within one month. UK-based, Qatari-owned news outlet Al Araby al Jadeed reported on December 16 that sources "close to the [HTS-led] military operations department" in Syria stated that Russia will withdraw all its military forces from Syria within one month.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-16-2024

Key Takeaways:

HTS, Turkey, and the Syrian Democratic Forces: Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas. The SDF is unlikely to accept Turkish maximalist demands, which would result in the SDF’s complete destruction, without suffering a military defeat.
HTS Consolidation: It is unclear if HTS leader Ahmad al Shara’s (aka Abu Mohammad al Jolani) vision of appointing a committee of legal experts to write the Syrian constitution will include multi-sectarian and religious representation. Shara and the interim prime minister have, however, appointed loyalists as governors in several provinces and ministers in the transitional government.
Protests in Syria: Syrian residents of Tartus demonstrated in front of the police headquarters in Tartus City on December 18 to protest the slow interim government response to theft and violent crime in the area. At least hundreds of Syrians also demonstrated in support of a secular, representative government in Damascus on December 19.
Southern Operations Room in Syria: Syrian media reported that the Southern Operations Room is attempting to unite disparate southern armed factions under the HTS-led interim government, likely in order to increase the relative strength of the Southern Operations Room vis-a-vis the HTS-led Fateh Mubin.
Israeli Strikes in Yemen: The IDF conducted two waves of airstrikes targeting port and energy infrastructure in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on December 18.
Houthi Strikes in Israel: The Houthis have conducted two attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on December 18.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-19-2024

Key Takeaways:

Syria: US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf described HTS leader Ahmed al Shara as “pragmatic” but did not specify what concrete steps Shara or the HTS-led interim government will take to combat terrorism or ensure minority rights.
Syria: HTS is trying to consolidate control over the Syrian coastal region amid reports of instability and violence there. HTS launched an effort purportedly to crack down on crime but appears also meant to counter politically motivated civil conflict.
Syria: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara is continuing to try to portray himself as pragmatic and inclusive by engaging minorities. Shara met with religious authorities who are responsible for managing a holy Shia shrine in Damascus and committed to protect it.
Yemen: The Houthis fired a Palestine-2 ballistic missile targeting the Tel Aviv-Jaffa area, injuring 16 Israelis. The IDF fired interceptors but missed the projectile. The IDF separately intercepted a likely Houthi drone that entered southern Israeli airspace.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-21-2024

Key Takeaways:

Syria: The HTS-led Syrian interim government reportedly stated that it will discuss mechanisms for disarming and dissolving the US-backed SDF with SDF leadership. The government also reportedly wants to avoid negotiations that would grant regional autonomy to the SDF.
Syria: Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn completely from most of their positions in Syria, including their base at Qamishli in northern Syria. Russia’s only remaining positions are at Hmeimim and Tartus along the Syrian coast.
Iraq: The Iraqi federal government is reportedly reconsidering its request for US forces to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2025 because it is concerned that the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria could threaten Iraqi security.
Iran: Iran is facing a severe energy crisis marked by electricity and natural gas shortages. This crisis presents a serious threat to regime stability given that it will likely stoke anti-regime sentiments and could spark protests.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-23-2024

Key Takeaways:

Syrian Democratic Forces: The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) defended against Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) attempts to recapture SDF-held ground on the west bank of the Euphrates River near the Tishreen Dam and Qere Qozak Bridge.
HTS Governance: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara may face resistance to the current moderate approach to governance from Salafi-Jihadi factions within the HTS-led coalition. Members of the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) in Syria, a member of the HTS-led military coalition with links to al Qaeda, set fire to a Christmas tree in Suqaylabiyah, Hama Governorate, on December 23. The friction between the Salafi-jihadi ideologues and Shara over his relatively moderate governance could force Shara to compel Salafi-jihadists to adhere to his vision or take a more Salafi approach to preserve Shara’s coalition.
ISIS Activity: ISIS may be attempting to resupply its forces with weapons captured from regime, Russian, and Iranian stocks in the central Syrian desert. CENTCOM targeted a “truckload of ISIS weapons” in Deir ez Zor. ISIS fighters−who have long fought under threat of airstrikes−would presumably avoid transporting large amounts of weapons from existing ISIS stocks, given the risk that US airstrikes would destroy much-needed weapons stockpiles. The decision to transport these weapons in a “truckload“ suggests that ISIS had captured a new stock of weapons and attempted to transport them to a safe location when CENTCOM struck the vehicle.
Building Syria’s Army: Syrian armed groups agreed to “dissolve” themselves and merge under the HTS-led Defense Ministry, but this does not mean that Syrian opposition forces will answer to the Defense Ministry in practice. HTS will likely absorb the various armed groups and functionally reflag them as new Syrian army units as a way to ameliorate concerns about losing power among various leaders. Dissolving and integrating therefore does not necessarily mean that these armed groups will cease to exist entirely. This type of absorption and reflagging often results in armed group leaders failing to observe the actual chain of command.
West Bank: The IDF is executing its operation at the same time Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces are operating against Palestinian militias to regain security control of Jenin from the militias. Israeli forces launched an unusual "brigade-wide" counterterrorism operation in Tulkarm, in the northern West Bank, on December 23. It also conducted a separate operation in Nablus.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and the public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

Conflict in Syria: Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. There is already an ongoing ethnic conflict between the Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). These trends include killings, arrests, and kidnappings that appear to occur outside of a transparent judicial process for trying war criminals, provocative protests and sectarian imagery on social media, and Iranian provocation.
HTS Government Formation: The HTS-led interim government appointed former al Qaeda in Iraq and Jabhat al Nusra member Anas Hasan Khattab as head of the General Intelligence Service on December 26.
SNA-SDF Fighting: The Turkish-backed SNA engaged the US-backed SDF in contested territory southeast of Manbij and likely pushed SDF forces east towards Tishreen Dam. Syrian media reported that the SDF advanced on a new axis into SNA-controlled territory east of Aleppo, likely to relieve pressure on the Tishreen Dam area by forcing the SNA to redeploy its forces to respond to a new threat.
Turkey: The Turkish Ministry of Defense announced in a statement on December 26 that Turkey supports a “unified Syrian army,” likely referring to a Syrian army that excludes the SDF.
Iraq in Syria: The pro-Iran Iraqi National Intelligence Service director implied to HTS leader Ahmad al Shara on December 26 that Iraq would consider intervening or allowing Iraqi militias to intervene in Syria if unspecified instability threatened Iraq.
Israel in Syria: The IDF continued to operate in villages in Quneitra and Daraa Provinces.
Yemen: The IDF conducted airstrikes targeting port and energy infrastructure in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on December 26.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-26-2024

Key Takeaways:

Conflict in Syria: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and its allies are contending with locally-organized cells of fighters in western Syria. HTS’s response to the current violence is fueling accusations of sectarianism and arbitrary targeting, which could in turn trigger further violence. CTP-ISW cannot verify the vast majority of these attacks, but the informational effect generated by the rumors of ethnically- or sectarian-motivated attacks could still drive a cycle of violence between minority communities and the HTS-led coalition, which is predominantly but not solely Sunni Arab.
SDF Operations Along the Euphrates: The SDF reportedly claimed on December 28 that it seized three towns along the Euphrates River between the Tishreen Dam and the Qara Qozak Bridge. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify this claim. The SDF likely intends to threaten the SNA’s rear in the Qara Qozak area by expanding the bridgehead, if these advances are accurate.
SDF-Government Clashes in Aleppo: Arab media and pro-Kurdish social media accounts amplified competing narratives after likely SDF-affiliated Kurdish fighters in northern Aleppo City killed two pro-interim government fighters. These competing claims between anti-SDF and pro-Kurdish media come as the SDF attempts to negotiate with HTS to confirm the status of the SDF and Kurdish minority in the future Syrian state. CTP-ISW cannot adjudicate these competing claims, but it is noteworthy that these narratives are being injected into the information space as the SDF attempts to negotiate with the interim Syrian government.
Iraq: Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet al Abasi inspected Iraqi army units and border police at Rabia border crossing, along the Syria-Iraq border, on December 28.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-28-2024

Key Takeaways:

Syria: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara detailed a three-to-four-year timeline for building a new Syrian state, during which he presumably would rule and could heavily influence the allocation of political power.
Syria: The HTS-led interim government is negotiating with the US-backed SDF to integrate it politically and militarily into the future Syrian state. It is unclear whether such integration would involve re-flagging SDF units or dispersing SDF members across the new Syrian armed forces.
Iran: Baloch Salafi-jihadi militia Ansar al Furqan claimed a suicide bombing targeting the head of political intelligence in Bandar Lengeh in southern Iran. The attack is notably deep into Iran given that most Baloch militancy in Iran occurs around the border with Pakistan.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Iran appears increasingly as though it seeks to foment sectarian conflict in Syria, which it could then exploit to establish proxy and partner militias there.
Syria: HTS leader Ahmed al Shara appointed loyalists to the senior levels of the new Syrian security establishment that he is currently forming.
Syria: HTS-interim government officials have continued to meet with military commanders affiliated with the Turkish-backed SNA.
Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters conducted a relatively large attack targeting the IDF in the northern Gaza Strip.

Gaza Strip:
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-30-2024

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a secret raid to destroy an underground missile factory funded by Iran inside Syria prior to the fall of the Assad regime, Israeli military censors revealed on Thursday.

The declassified photos and videos of the operation, which involved over 100 Israeli commandos from the elite Shaldag (“Kingfisher”) unit, went viral in Israel.

In a statement (https://idfanc.activetrail.biz/ANC020125182615242537352), the IDF said:

On September 8th, 2024, during a special operation by the Israeli Air Force, troops from the Shaldag Unit raided and destroyed an underground compound for manufacturing precision missiles in the Masyaf area, deep in Syrian territory.

For years, the Intelligence Directorate conducted extensive intelligence gathering and monitoring, confirming the value of the target. In the months leading up to the operation, a plan was launched for the Israeli Air Force to destroy it.

The soldiers landed using helicopters, with fire and intelligence-gathering support from aircraft, fighter jets, and naval vessels of the Israeli Navy. The raid’s target was an underground compound deep in Syrian territory, funded and supported by Iran. The compound was a flagship project for Iran’s efforts to arm its terror proxies on Israel’s northern border. The compound included advanced assembly lines designed to manufacture precision-guided missiles and long-range rockets, significantly increasing the supply of missiles to Hezbollah and other Iranian terror proxies in the region.

During the operation, the forces reached critical machinery for manufacturing precision missiles, including a planetary mixer, numerous weapons, and intelligence documents, which were transferred for investigation. The soldiers destroyed the compound and safely returned to Israeli territory.

The IDF will continue to act strategically and professionally with various methods and tactics to remove threats directed at the citizens of Israel.

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2025/01/02/declassified-idf-raided-iran-backed-underground-missile-factory-in-syria/

Key Takeaways:

Khamenei Commemorates Soleimani: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attempted to justify Iran’s sacrifices in Syria and emphasized resilience amid setbacks during a speech on January 1 that commemorated the death of former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Qassem Soleimani. The speech also omitted references to current IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, who some in Iran hold responsible for the rapid unraveling of Iran’s project in Syria and the defeat of Hezbollah and Hamas.
Khamenei on Syria: Khamenei continued to advance a hard line on Syria by emphasizing that Syrian youth will resist “foreign occupation” in Syria and comparing the “Syrian youth” to Iraqi militias mobilized by Soleimani in the mid-2000s against the United States.
Lebanese Security Forces Search Iranian Flight: Lebanese Airport security forces searched an Iranian Mahan Air flight in Beirut on suspicion of transporting funds to Hezbollah, which is in line with Lebanese obligations under the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement.
Fighting Continues in Northern Syria: The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) have continued to clash in villages west of Tishreen Dam since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on January 2. The SDF claimed on January 3 that SNA attacks have caused “significant damage” to parts of Tishreen Dam which poses risks to its stability, and connecting the two SDF advances would presumably strengthen supply lines in the event of critical damage to or destruction of the Dam.
US Presence in Syria: Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said that the US has no plans to establish a base in Kobani and dismissed local Syrian reports as “inaccurate.”

Syria
Axis of Resistance objectives:

Reestablish ground lines of communication through Syria to Lebanon
Reestablish Iranian influence in Syria

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-3-2025

Syria’s Rebel Leader Is No Moderate!

Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani is committed to armed jihad and has praised 9/11’s planners.

Once head of al Qaeda’s branch in Syria, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani is now the most powerful man in the country. He is leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the U.S.-designated terrorist organization that overthrew Bashar al-Assad this month. Western leaders are responding to this development with relative calm because Mr. Jawlani supposedly broke with al Qaeda in 2016.

But has this new leader really rejected what al Qaeda stands for and severed ties with al Qaeda’s extended network? Mr. Jawlani delivered an address in 2016 in which he disavowed “affiliation with any external entity.” Many reporters and analysts interpreted that comment as a repudiation of al Qaeda. Yet one of al Qaeda’s high-ranking leaders approved in advance of Mr. Jawlani’s rebranding.

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/12/29/syrias-rebel-leader-is-no-moderate/

All Boards => Moved Hot Topics => Topic started by: D2D on 05 23, 24, 09:08:20:PM