The WH’s best-case scenario for the pandemic slips out of reach

The coronavirus task force projected in early April that the number of deaths due to COVID-19 would total 60,000, a vast improvement from original projections that as many as 200,000 would die, even if the country aggressively followed social distancing guidelines. Now, though, the number of deaths has surpassed 50,300 and will likely hit 60,000 by the first week of May.

President Trump has credited the “tremendous resolve” of the public for lower projections below the 100,000 mark, not to mention the projections for up to 2 million people to die in the absence of any social distancing.

“But we did the right thing, because if we didn’t do it, you would have had a million people, a million and a half people, maybe 2 million people dead,” Trump said during Monday’s briefing. “I always say it: One is too many. But we’re going toward 50- or 60,000 people.”

As of 5 p.m. Friday, 50,890 people had died in the United States from the coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University data, compared to about 35,790 on Monday and 30,290 on Thursday. The number of new deaths reported each day in the U.S. has hovered around 2,000, which only takes into consideration those deaths confirmed to be due to COVID-19.

The Congressional Budget Office issued a grim prognosis for the economy, projecting that unemployment will spike to 16% this year, and then, instead of falling back down quickly, remain as high as 10% through the end of next year. The office, which provides official budget and economic analysis for members of Congress, also estimated that the deficit would rise to $3.7 trillion for 2020 and $2.1 trillion in 2021.