Will Trump Fatigue Bite Him in 2020

Week 2 of the president of the United States and his communications director of six days feuding on Twitter and cable TV.

The Trump-Scaramucci smackdown has, at times, distracted from the Trump-Denmark fight, which has been eclipsed, in its turn, by the Trump-Omar/Tlaib battle that has somehow morphed into a clash between Trump and Jews who vote for Democrats.

This is only a schematic account of events of the past few days that leaves out minor, supplemental controversies over Trump retweeting a supporter calling him the King of Israel, Trump insulting his Federal Reserve chairman, Trump retweeting a suggestion that a federal prisoner might have been assassinated by one of his predecessors in the Oval Office, and Trump blasting Fox News over a poll he didn’t like.

Trump makes the hyperactive, voluble Teddy Roosevelt, whom H.G. Wells called “a big noise,” seem shy and retiring by comparison. He makes the wrathful Andrew Jackson, who nearly blew up his administration over how the wives of his Cabinet members were treating Peggy Eaton, the wife of the secretary of War, look like a paragon of calm and caution.

Obviously, the fundamentals will be most determinative of Trump’s fate in 2020. Is the economy still growing? Are we at peace? How does the trade war with China stand? But the backdrop to it all will be the level of public tolerance for, or exhaustion with, Trump’s antics and provocations.

In other words, can Americans bear for the show to go on? The threat to Trump isn’t Trump Derangement Syndrome, an affliction of opponents who can’t really touch him and whose hysteria actually bonds Trump’s supporters to him even more strongly. The threat is Trump Fatigue, a condition that could spread more broadly and make swing voters harder to reach.

The Greenland flap is classic, too. It’s sticky because the notion of buying Greenland is funny, like a story line from a political spoof. Trump’s enemies don’t understand how entertaining his fans find this kind of thing. Then, somehow, it becomes a real diplomatic incident, with insults and hurt feelings on both sides and a presidential trip to Denmark canceled for now (although usually these disputes are papered over when the glare of the controversy abates).

Finally, the fight over Reps. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib’s trip to Israel implicates the cluster of real issues that Trump’s presidency has brought to the fore—including national identity and the right of a nation-state to control who enters its borders—but in a highly symbolic manner. It wouldn’t have mattered much substantively whether Omar or Tlaib had gone on their trip or not, but it’s cancellation occasioned a fierce, roiling debate.

What all these controversies have in common is that they fill the hours while nothing much really happens. Is Anthony Scaramucci actually going to organize a primary challenge against Trump? No. Is Greenland going to be sold, or Denmark fall off as a U.S. ally? No. Is Israel’s fate going to rise or fall on the travels of a couple left-wing backbench U.S. congresswomen? No.

Finally, the fight over Reps. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib’s trip to Israel implicates the cluster of real issues that Trump’s presidency has brought to the fore—including national identity and the right of a nation-state to control who enters its borders—but in a highly symbolic manner. It wouldn’t have mattered much substantively whether Omar or Tlaib had gone on their trip or not, but it’s cancellation occasioned a fierce, roiling debate.

What all these controversies have in common is that they fill the hours while nothing much really happens. Is Anthony Scaramucci actually going to organize a primary challenge against Trump? No. Is Greenland going to be sold, or Denmark fall off as a U.S. ally? No. Is Israel’s fate going to rise or fall on the travels of a couple left-wing backbench U.S. congresswomen? No.