Why Carry a Gun?

WASHINGTON, March 8— Eighty-three percent of 12-year-old children in the United States will be victims or intended victims of violent crimes at least once in their lifetimes, the Justice Department reported today. Fifty-two percent will be victims of such crimes more than once.

Using figures compiled by the Government's National Crime Survey, the department has calculated an individual's chance of becoming a victim of violent crime in his or her lifetime.

Based on current crime rates, the study reached these conclusions:

* One out of every 133 Americans will become a murder victim. Among black men, the estimate is dramatically higher: 1 out of 30.

* One out of every 12 women will be the victim of a rape or attempted rape. The rate for black women is 1 out of 9.

* Nearly everyone will be the victim of a personal theft at least once, and 87 percent will be personal theft victims three or more times. Variety of Differences

Significant differences between blacks and whites and men and women appear in several areas. Blacks have a 53 percent chance of becoming the victims of a completed rape, robbery or assault, while the figure for whites is 41 percent. For robbery, blacks face a 51 percent victimization rate, while the rate for whites is 27 percent.

Men are more likely to be violently assaulted than women, the study found. Eighty-nine percent of 12-year-old boys can expect to become victims of violent crimes, as against 73 percent for girls. Nearly one in four men will be robbed, but only one out of five women.

In addition, researchers found that as a person ages, the chances of being a victim of violent crime decline more rapidly than life expectancy. Age and Violent Crime

According to the report, people who are now 20 years old have a 72 percent chance of being raped, robbed or assaulted, and the figures drop to 53 percent at age 30, 36 percent at age 40, 22 percent at age 50, 14 percent at age 60 and 8 percent at the age of 70.

Almost 3 out of 4 households will be burglarized at least once in a 20-year period, and theft without forcible entry will occur in 9 out of 10 homes. Urban households have a 93 percent of being burglarized, and rural homes 82 percent.

One out of 5 households will have an automobile stolen, but the odds drop to 1 in 10 in rural areas. Urban households face a 27 percent chance of auto theft in a 20-year period.

Researchers conducted twice-yearly interviews with 101,000 people aged 12 and over in 49,000 households.

The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), administered by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, is a national survey of approximately 49,000 to 77,400 households twice a year in the United States, on the frequency of crime victimization, as well as characteristics and consequences of victimization. The survey focuses on gathering information on the following crimes: assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, rape, and robbery. The survey results are used for the purposes of building a crime index. It has been used in comparison with the Uniform Crime Reports and the National Incident Based Reporting System to assess the dark figure of crime.