Paying for President Trump's "phenomenal" tax plan could require an equally phenomenal rate of economic growth that experts say may not be possible.



Both the CBO and JCT already use dynamic scoring for major legislation. A 2015 report, for instance, put the cost of repealing the Affordable Care Act at $353 billion over a decade using traditional accounting methods, but at just $137 billion under dynamic scoring. Mnuchin suggested that the administration's scoring models will produce a palatable pricetag for Trump's tax proposals.

"The kinds of things they're talking about should have dynamic effects," said Roberton Williams, a fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. "Big or small? Depends on the model."

Many economists have questioned whether Mnuchin's target of 3 percent growth is achievable and sustainable, given the shrinking of the U.S. labor force. And even if the economy does speed up, it's unclear that 3 percent growth would be enough to pay for the dramatic reductions in corporate and personal tax rates proposed by Trump during the campaign, or by House Republicans since the election.

Trump repeatedly suggested before the election that growth could hit as much as 6 percent. His campaign's own analysis of his economic proposals assumed that growth would reach 4 percent. Mnuchin walked back that number in an interview with CNBC in November, shortly after his nomination, citing 3 to 4 percent growth.

On Thursday, Mnuchin promised only 3 percent growth or higher.

A conservative analysis by the Tax Foundation of the plan Trump proposed during the campaign estimated it would cost $2.6 trillion over the next decade, even after accounting for improved economic growth. A dynamic evaluation by the Tax Policy Center projected the price tag would hit $21 trillion by 2036.


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